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• We anticipate that Uganda’s deposit growth will increase slightly from 13.3% y-o-y at end-2023 to 14.0% at end-2024. We also think that client loan growth will increase from 8.5% to 12.0% over the same period.
• Higher capital requirements – which will come into effect in June – will once again be a key concern facing banks in 2024.
• W

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• The economy outperformed our 4.7% growth forecast for 2023, expanding by a swifter 5.0% instead and pointing to stronger growth momentum than we previous thought.
• However, we are sticking to our 5.5% growth forecast for 2024. 
• One reason is that a likely global growth slowdown will weigh on external demand, and another is that the

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• The political backdrop in Ireland will remain stable in the year ahead of next election in 2025.
• We see little reason that the main governing Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition partners will manage to meaningfully narrow their polling gap with the nationalist opposition party Sinn Féin.
• This is due to the fact that the main electoral

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• Following President Felix Tshisekedi’s re-election – and his ruling coalition’s strong showing – at the December 2023 general election we expect a rapid formation of a new government, and tailwinds to policy formation and continuity.
• We believe that Tshisekedi will preside over strong growth in his second term, and that he will

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• According to the initial estimate from the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), German real GDP contracted by 0.3% in 2023. This marked a sharper contraction than our prior forecast for a 0.1% decline, signaling a worse economic performance in Q423 than expected by consensus.
• We retain our forecasts for real GDP growth of 0

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• South Korea’s long-term crude oil contracts are expected to rise in 2024 and beyond.
• The Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) aims to bolster crude oil trade between South Korea and Middle Eastern producers.
• Growing reliance on term crude oil imports could adversely affect imports from the spot markets

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• We forecast that loan growth in Pakistan will rebound to 7.2% y-o-y by end-2024 because of improving economic conditions and a lower anticipated cost of debt.
• However, given that government bonds make up 42% of total banking assets, banks are vulnerable if government finances come under further pressure.
• That said, overall credit

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• Despite a push to pass important legislation ahead of the European parliamentary elections, we expect that electoral considerations as well as divisions between the major party groupings will stall reform at the EU level.
• The EU will likely focus its efforts on passing the Migration and Asylum Pact, supporting the green and digital

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• Houthi attacks on shipping vessels in the Red Sea mark a significant flashpoint in global container shipping as rerouted vessels lead to higher shipping costs and scheduling disruptions.
• The Asia-Europe corridor will face the most acute delays given the scarcity of viable alternatives to the essential Suez Canal and the intricate