Articles

• Russia to post budget surplus in 2018 and 2019.
• Putin's 2018 May Decrees will shape the country's budget strategy over the coming years, underpinning reform momentum in the fiscal sector and increased borrowing.

Forecast Change:

• We have revised our budget balance forecasts for Russia to reflect higher than anticipated revenues alongside

The ongoing tightening of labour markets across the largest advanced economies is one of the clearest trends highlighted in Fitch Ratings' latest 20/20 Vision chart pack and is helping to underpin consumer spending. 

Healthy job growth and declining unemployment in the US, eurozone and Japan is boosting household real incomes and helping to

Key View: MTN's sale of its Cyprus unit will not be its last divestment as the operator pursues a strategy of reducing net debt, better managing its regulatory exposure and boosting its margins.

MTN's sale of its Cyprus unit to Monaco Telecom, for around USD304mn, is not entirely surprising as the Europe-based unit falls outside of its

Key View:

• Political concerns will elevate government expenditure in 2018, notably due to the cost of elections in December and the need to combat numerous insurgencies across the country.
• Disagreements with donors will weigh on a large revenue stream, while disorder and mass displacement in some regions will dampen tax revenues, widening the

We believe that logistics and air travel infrastructure in Bhutan will likely be attractive areas for foreign direct investment over the coming years. Our view is informed by the EU-Bhutan Trade Support Project and an improving tourist arrival outlook. This supports our forecast for real GDP growth to average 7.0% over the coming decade.

It is

• We have revised down our growth forecasts for Nigeria's alcoholic drinks sector following the implementation of higher excise duties on beer, wine and spirits.
• In addition to passing on the duties to consumers, companies will also look to cut costs by refocusing production in other markets in West Africa, and by investing in local, cheaper

Key View:

• We expect that the Congolese franc will remain in a broad, depreciatory trend in both the short and the long term as political strife, negative real interest rates and monetary tightening in developed markets create downside pressure on the currency.
• Depreciation will be much more gradual than in 2016 and 2017, however, as robust

The implementation of the International Maritime Organization (IMO)'s cap on sulphur content in marine fuels will prove majorly disruptive globally. Below we explore key implications for the oil and shipping sectors. 

The implementation of the IMO’s 2020 sulphur cap (IMO 2020) will accelerate efforts to curb maritime air pollution. However, it

Key View:

• In a bid to expand its portfolio, ride-hailing app Grab is partnering with HappyFresh to enter the online grocery delivery service market in South East Asia via Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand.
• This strategic move would allow Grab to become an "everyday app", used by consumers for different needs and throughout the day, while also

China is set to lead the way on rail projects over coming years, dominating the global project pipeline in terms of both the value and the number of projects. While China is the major hub of rail sector activity, a mix of both developed and emerging markets including the US, India and Australia will offer substantial investment opportunities