Articles

The Move Into Cash May Be Just Beginning

Country Risk / Global / Thu 29 Jun, 2017

The rare combination of higher bond yields and lower equity prices across developed markets is becoming increasingly likely as risk perceptions change amid extreme market valuations. Cash is likely to become increasingly attractive due to its safety as central banks move to normalise monetary policy and asset values fall creating the appearance

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Vodafone Uses Loophole To Pre-Empt Iliad

Telecommunications / Italy / Wed 28 Jun, 2017

With its new plans, Vodafone is looking to pre-empt Iliad's entry in the Italian mobile market, due in early 2018. The use of zero-rating highlights the lack of clarity and fragmentation at the European level, as EU rules were not explicit on the service, leading operators to take advantage and offer free data on their tariffs.

Vodafone Italy has

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Gradual Reforms On The Cards Despite Political Challenges

Country Risk / Wed 28 Jun, 2017

The Indian economy has broadly benefitted from the reforms undertaken by the government since it took office in May 2014, and we expect the administration led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to continue to enact incremental reforms over the coming years, which should be positive for the economy. That said, the BJP's lack of a majority in the upper

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Personal Care To Outperform

Consumer & Retail / Iran / Wed 28 Jun, 2017

Demographics, social media usage and rising incomes will drive continued demand growth for personal care products over our forecast period. The removal of sanctions will bring in more globally recognised brands, as they look to tap into this expanding market. Challenges around correct pricing and partnering with local distributors will be critical

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Bottom In Brent As Bears Reach Extremes

Oil & Gas / Global / Wed 28 Jun, 2017

With all the negative news factored into prices and with sentiment at bearish extremes, the risk to prices over the coming months lies to the upside.

Brent crude has had a torrid 2017, falling from a high of USD57.10/bbl in January to USD44.82/bbl June. Returning barrels from Libya and Nigeria, a rampant US shale recovery and disappointing Q117

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Crude Woes Continue

Mining / Angola / Sun 25 Jun, 2017

Angola's short term production downgrade reflects the higher decline rates at producing fields, leaving Angola producing below its allocated OPEC quota. The start up of Kaombo in 2018 will help support production, but a serious lack of investment stemming from weak market conditions and a poor operating environment limits Angola's long term

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Construction Shielded From Diplomatic Rift For Now

Infrastructure / Middle East / Sat 24 Jun, 2017

We have elected to maintain our robust growth outlook for the Qatari construction industry in 2017 even as the diplomatic rift between Qatar and its Gulf neighbours disrupts the import of goods into the market. Our view is underpinned by the government's effort to secure its building materials supply chain for at least two months and our view that

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