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Key View: Over 2024, we forecast total tourist arrivals to Azerbaijan to grow by 26.0% y-o-y to 2.6mn, increasing from 2.1mn arrivals in 2023. Azerbaijan’s 2024 arrivals will be at 82.9% of the pre-pandemic level in 2019, despite the double-digit growth over the year. We project Azerbaijan’s arrivals to continue to increase over the remainder

Key View

• We expect that the Bank of Uganda (BoU) will cut its policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 9.50% by end-2024, after hiking by 50bps to 10.00% at a special meeting on March 6.
• While inflation is likely to pick up over the coming months, driven by the lagged impact of exchange rate depreciation on import prices, we do not expect

The Latest: On March 5 2024, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Dexcom’s Stelo Glucose Biosensor System, marking the first FDA approval of an over the counter (OTC) continuous glucose monitor (CGM). The device is an integrated CGM that is to be worn on the upper arm and lasts for up to 15 days before it needs to be replaced. It

Key View

• Angola eyes greater production autonomy following its decision to leave OPEC, as African influence within the group wanes.
• Angola’s exit from OPEC offers cautious optimism for the oil sector’s challenges of under-investment and production declines.
• There are still questions regarding Angola’s ability to resurrect its upstream

Latest Development: Verizon Business and Audi AG have formed a partnership to construct a private 5G network and testing ground at Audi's test track in Germany. The site will be utilised to test and replicate network conditions found in global markets. As the EU moves to develop new standards and data usage practices with regards to the

We retain our view that the economy will not return to its pre-war size until 2031. By pre-war we refer to the size of the economy in 2013, before Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine. Ukraine’s National Recovery Plan (NRP) assumes that Ukraine will achieve growth of 7% or higher over the next decade. We believe the NRP, released in 2022, did not

Key View

• We anticipate an increase in political risk in Croatia over the coming months, as the country prepares to hold legislative elections by May, European parliamentary elections in June, and presidential elections in December. 
• The election campaigns are likely to be dominated by the still high cost of living, corruption, immigration

Key View

• New gas discoveries are expected to enhance the competitiveness of Indonesia's upstream sector.
• Exploration successes are reinforcing Indonesia's objective to reach gas production targets of 12 bcfd by 2030.
• The development of stranded offshore gas assets will provide additional upside potential for natural gas production.

Key View: We hold a positive outlook for consumer spending in India over 2024, as the wider Indian economy recovers and growth figures return to a more stable medium-term trajectory. High-frequency data indicate that consumer confidence is at the highest since 2019 and have returned to pre-Covid levels, suggesting that consumer spending on big

Key View

• 2023 was a poor year for Brunei’s economy as the external sector emerged as its biggest weakness. 
• As for 2024, we think growth will accelerate to 2.9% from 1.4% in 2023. The bright spot of the economy will be the influx of foreign investment led by Heng Yi.
• Brunei’s economy faces numerous challenges in its economic