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The broad commodities complex has posted gains in March, with every commodity sub-class – excluding softs – enjoying a lift from mid-February to mid-March. Despite this, softs remain one of the clear outperformers in the year-to-date, driven by spiraling cocoa prices, having been overtaken by only energy in March. This sits in stark contrast to

The Latest: On March 21 2024, Mexico's statistical agency, Instituto Nacional de Estadística Geografía e Informática, published their retail sales data, showing real retail sales volumes contracting -0.9% y-o-y over January 2024, the first month of contraction in retail sales since the pandemic-induced contraction over Q1 2024. 

Implications

Key View

• Changes to Ghana’s oil and gas royalty and licencing scheme are expected to be implemented this year to rejuvenate international investment into Ghana’s energy sector. 
• Licensing reform is unlikely to result in greater government stake in existing oil and gas developments, as the incumbent government will seek to avoid jeopardising

Key View

• In line with our own and consensus expectation, the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) cut its policy rate by a further 50 basis points (bp) to 10.75% at its March 20 meeting.
• A further 50bp cut is likely in May, but we see some potential for the BCB to signal a slowdown in the pace of cuts from June onward, given emerging evidence of an

Key View

• We expect the EU to shift its attention to an industrial policy that is more supportive to European businesses by pushing forward key pieces of legislation.
• We anticipate that the EU will continue to water down its green ambitions as it struggles to boost economic competitiveness. 
• The EU will seek to leverage its single market and

Latest Developments: Bank Indonesia (BI) kept the benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate at 6.00% on March 20, in line with consensus and our expectations. This was the fifth consecutive time the Bank has stood pat since its last 25 basis points (bps) hike back in October.

Forecast Implications: The latest meeting contains few surprises overall

Key View

• The projected slowdown in global growth in 2024 may lead to weaker trade and adversely affect developed market economies. Economies with high trade openness, such as Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands face greater vulnerability to a global trade slowdown.
• In the context of economic growth in Mainland China and the US, Australia

Key View

• Russia's automotive market will rely on imported vehicles over 2024-2033 due to sanctions and labour shortages, undoing the progress made in reducing vehicle imports over 2016-2022.
• Russia's passenger vehicle (PV) segment will face the most significant challenges over 2024-2033, as the PV manufacturing industry is starved of

Key View

• Turkiye's domestic gas demand is poised for robust growth throughout our forecast period, bolstered by the completion of the Sakarya gas field, which will enhance expansion by reducing reliance on energy imports.
• Turkiye remains heavily dependent on energy imports which comes with a substantial financial burden and exposure to the

Key View

• Belgian households will spend a relatively stable proportion of their total household spending on food, supported by high disposable incomes and the mass proliferation of Mass Grocery Retail across the country.
• Meat is a key aspect of Belgian diets and also accounted for the largest food spending category at more than a quarter (26.1