Articles

Key View

• Changes to Ghana’s oil and gas royalty and licencing scheme are expected to be implemented this year to rejuvenate international investment into Ghana’s energy sector. 
• Licensing reform is unlikely to result in greater government stake in existing oil and gas developments, as the incumbent government will seek to avoid jeopardising

Key View

• In line with our own and consensus expectation, the Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) cut its policy rate by a further 50 basis points (bp) to 10.75% at its March 20 meeting.
• A further 50bp cut is likely in May, but we see some potential for the BCB to signal a slowdown in the pace of cuts from June onward, given emerging evidence of an

Key View

• The Iranian rial will depreciate more rapidly in 2024 compared to 2023 on the parallel market, influenced by heightened political risks from negative investor sentiment in Q1 2024 and uncertainties surrounding the upcoming US presidential election in November.
• Conversely, the Nima exchange rate's depreciation will ease relative to

Key View

• Belgian households will spend a relatively stable proportion of their total household spending on food, supported by high disposable incomes and the mass proliferation of Mass Grocery Retail across the country.
• Meat is a key aspect of Belgian diets and also accounted for the largest food spending category at more than a quarter (26.1

Key View

• We still expect the Fed will cut its funds rate by 100bps this year to 4.50%, beginning in June. A further 175bps will follow next year that will take the funds rate down to 3.00% by December 2025.
• The Fed left the funds rate unchanged at 5.50%, but officials maintained their guidance for three cuts this year (to 4.75%) despite

Key View

• We still think the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party will handily win the Lok Sabha elections which will kick off on April 19.
• Reform prospects would remain mixed under a prospective third Modi government.
• The BJP’s preference for religious appeals risks inflaming sectarian tensions, which could derail India’s rise as an investment

Key View

• Following recent progress on the TAZARA rail line modernisation project, we have upwardly adjusted our Tanzania and Zambia construction growth forecasts.
• With secured financing and political support, we expect the project to move forward over the medium term.
• Furthermore, we note that heightened geopolitical tensions between

Key View

• We expect the EU to shift its attention to an industrial policy that is more supportive to European businesses by pushing forward key pieces of legislation.
• We anticipate that the EU will continue to water down its green ambitions as it struggles to boost economic competitiveness. 
• The EU will seek to leverage its single market and

Latest Developments: Bank Indonesia (BI) kept the benchmark seven-day reverse repo rate at 6.00% on March 20, in line with consensus and our expectations. This was the fifth consecutive time the Bank has stood pat since its last 25 basis points (bps) hike back in October.

Forecast Implications: The latest meeting contains few surprises overall

Key View

• The projected slowdown in global growth in 2024 may lead to weaker trade and adversely affect developed market economies. Economies with high trade openness, such as Ireland, Belgium and the Netherlands face greater vulnerability to a global trade slowdown.
• In the context of economic growth in Mainland China and the US, Australia