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We have updated our global political timeline for the 2020s, based on scheduled events in selected countries that are of great geopolitical or economic importance in their region or the wider world. Many countries have fixed election dates, meaning that it is possible to identify potential political turning points well in advance, but many

Latest Development: The United Kingdom and the United States have signed an agreement to collaborate on developing robust methods for assessing the safety of AI systems, a move that deepens their partnership in addressing significant technology challenges. This collaboration, effective immediately, is part of a broader international effort

Key View

• We think that the period leading up to the May 29 election will be marked by some volatility, weighing on the banking sector. However, beyond the election date, we anticipate a return to stability and policy continuity.
• The ANC has pledged to transform the financial landscape, although we think that the extent of its influence will likely be

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A number of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) banking sectors are bracing for significant changes and challenges that will confront them in 2024. In Nigeria, the central bank has increased the minimum capital requirements, which will trigger sectoral consolidation similar to what was seen after the last increase in 2005. Meanwhile, Tanzania

The Latest: On April 2, 2024, Côte d’Ivoire’s Minister of Agriculture, Rural Development and Food Production, Kobenan Kouassi Adjoumani, announced that the official cocoa farmgate prices in Côte d’Ivoire will increase from CFA1,000 per kg to CFA1,500 per kg. This 50% increase comes as cocoa prices have surged throughout 2024 to date, increasing by

Key View

• We forecast that Namibia’s ruling SWAPO party will obtain a reduced majority in the November 2024 legislative elections as poor living standards and perceptions of corruption fuel discontent.
• While our core view is that SWAPO’s candidate, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, will narrowly win the presidential vote, we flag moderate risks to policy