Articles

Economic Growth To Decelerate Sharply In 2024 In Aruba

Country Risk / Aruba / Tue 26 Mar, 2024

Key View

  • Aruba’s economy expanded more quickly than we had previously expected in 2023, with real GDP growth rising by an estimated 5%, owing mainly to the robust performance of the tourism sector.
  • Nevertheless, we forecast real GDP growth slowing to just 1.2% in 2024, due partially to high statistical base effects.
  • Slower growth in 2024
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Greek GDP Growth To Accelerate In 2024 And 2025

Country Risk / Greece / Mon 25 Mar, 2024

Key View

  • Greek GDP expanded by 0.2% q-o-q in Q423, following its 0.1% contraction in Q323, bringing 2023 annual growth to 2.0 (BMI forecast: 1.9%). We have in turn lifted out 2024 growth forecast from 1.6% to 2.4%, as core drivers of growth outperformed our expectations.
  • Growth will be underpinned by an acceleration in private consumption
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BoE Set To Unwind QE By More Than Peers

Country Risk / United Kingdom / Fri 22 Mar, 2024

Key View

  • Major central banks were broadly in sync as they undertook quantitative easing (QE); however, the BoE is set to undertake a divergent path in reducing the size of its balance sheet, conducting quantitative tightening (QT) to a greater extent than its peers, including more outright bonds sales.
  • We expect that QT from the BoE will
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