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Please note: BMI is enhancing its risk analysis with a new scoring system following acquisition of GeoQuant, a market-leading provider of political risk data. From 27th March 2024, risk scores are inverted: zero now represents the lowest risk and 100 the highest, for clearer, industry-standard assessments. For further details, please refer to our

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• South Africa’s NHI Bill is likely to be signed into law in 2024 even if the African National Congress loses its majority during the May general election.
• If the NHI Bill passes into law, it will gradually constrain the private health sector over the long term.
• Budgetary constraints, corruption risks and an overstretched healthcare system are

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• We expect Denmark's economic growth to slow marginally in 2024, projecting a GDP expansion of 1.6%, a slight decrease from the 1.9% growth rate observed in 2023.
• While monetary policy is set to become more accommodative, less favourable base effects – stemming from stronger-than-expected growth in 2023 – will temper the growth rate

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• Roche’s latest Columvi data will support the drug’s full approval in the US and Europe.
• Approval as an earlier line treatment will give Roche an edge over AbbVie and Genmab’s Epkinly.
• Bispecific therapies will continue to attract interest from cancer drugmakers.

Roche’s latest Columvi (glofitamab) data will support the drug’s full

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• We forecast that the Bank of Namibia (BoN) will begin its monetary easing cycle in Q3 2024, cutting the repo rate by 50 basis points (bps) to 7.25% by end-2024.
• The BoN will aim to safeguard the Namibian dollar’s one-to-one peg with the South African rand which will prompt it to closely follow the SARB’s monetary policy decisions.
• I

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• As we expected, the US House of Representatives approved USD95bn in foreign aid on April 20 including USD60.7bn in aid for Ukraine (31.8% of GDP).
• The resumption of US military aid should provide Ukraine with just enough materiel to defend itself, but its forces will still lack resource volumes required to contest the battlefield

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• The Alliance for Regional Production and Innovation proposed by Brazil is poised to strengthen the country's pharmaceutical market growth, supporting the projected rise in pharmaceutical sales.
• This initiative, which aligns with Brazil's economic and healthcare strategies, is expected to drive domestic innovation and production

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• Qatar's LNG production capacity expansions being driven by a robust global LNG demand growth outlook.
• Europe's struggle to reduce dependence on Russian gas offers significant opportunities for Qatar to expand its LNG production capacities.
• Competition between the US and Qatar for a greater share of Europe's LNG market is expected

Key View:

• We believe that the low productivity of cocoa plantations in West Africa and the long-term structural factors weighing on production in the region represent an upside risk for Latin American cocoa producers. 
• We forecast that cocoa production in Ecuador will increase over the medium to long term and we expect increased investment in

Key View

• We expect that Botswana’s current account surplus will widen to 1.1% of GDP in 2024, from an estimated 0.4% in 2023. 
• Recovering global demand for diamonds will provide tailwinds to exports in 2024, prompting a widening of the trade surplus.
• Risks to Botswana’s external position will remain limited given robust reserves and minimal