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• Global electricity prices expected to drop with falling fossil fuel prices. Although, prices will remain above historical-averages over 2024 owing to sticky inflation.
• European markets have some of the highest prices globally, with Denmark and Germany as leaders and Mozambique and Tunisia as laggards.
• Global commercial prices will be highest

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• We expect the Ukrainian economy to extend its recovery trajectory, growing by 3.5% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025.
• Loose fiscal policy, the stable operation of export routes and the continued optimisation of wartime production and logistics will remain key drivers of growth.
• Nonetheless, Russian airstrikes, labour shortages and electricity

Please Note: BMI is enhancing its risk analysis with a new scoring system following its acquisition of GeoQuant, a market-leading provider of political risk data. From March 27 2024, risk scores are inverted: zero now represents the lowest risk and 100 represents the highest risk. This allows for clearer, industry-standard assessments. For further

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• We expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points from its current high of 4.00% to 3.75% in June, versus our prior expectation for a cut in July. We retain our forecast for it to be lowered only slightly further to a year-end rate of 3.25%.
• Constrained regional growth prospects will motivate the ECB to

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• Ongoing drugmaker investment will boost Singapore’s status as a key pharmaceutical hub.
• The government of Singapore will continue to take a proactive role in developing the market’s biomedical manufacturing industry. 
• Through AstraZeneca’s investment, Singapore's position as an important trading hub for the pharmaceutical sector in the

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• In 2023, Tunisia’s olive oil exports amounted to a record TND3.81bn compared to TND2.50bn in 2022 and an average of TND2.00bn per annum in 2018-2022. Several factors contributed to robust export sales including a sharp downturn in EU olive oil production and continued tightness in world edible oil markets. We expect that Tunisian exports

In Sub-Saharan Africa, e-commerce is adapting to low bank account ownership by integrating mobile money and hybrid payment systems. With only 3% credit card and 24% debit card ownership in 2021, services like Safaricom’s M-Pesa and MTN's MoMo are pivotal, offering mobile money accounts to all consumer groups. Hybrid payment systems combine online

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• We forecast that Tanzania’s real GDP growth will accelerate from 5.1% in 2023 to 5.4% in 2024, after the Q4 2023 growth print came in at 4.6%, from 5.3% in Q3 2024. 
• Tanzania’s improving investment environment will continue to encourage greater private sector credit demand and investment. Meanwhile, the government has signalled that public

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• On May 22, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that a UK general election will be held on July 4.
• This date is much earlier than most expected. Sunak may be attempting to take advantage of a pickup in economic activity and confirmation that inflation has fallen to 2.3% y-o-y (in April) to encourage a feelgood factor heading into the vote.
• We