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• We expect the National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT) to adopt a broadly neutral monetary policy stance over the coming quarters.
• We forecast that inflation will ease from an average 6.4% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024, below the NRBT's reference rate of 5.0%, while growth is likely to remain relatively subdued.
• We note risks that a renewed increase

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• We now forecast real GDP growth of 4.1% in Papua New Guinea in 2024, down from our previous forecast of 4.4%.
• While a recovery in mining exports will drive an acceleration in growth, elevated political instability, renewed inflationary pressures and tighter monetary conditions remain headwinds to domestic demand.
• Risks are skewed to the

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• Thailand’s natural gas production is projected to recover in 2024 growing by 8% y-o-y.
• Thailand’s proved natural gas reserves are expected to rise further in 2024 as both local and foreign companies ramp up drilling activities in the Gulf of Thailand.
• Erawan and Bongkot fields holds the key to Thailand’s natural gas production growth in the

Key View

• Polls suggest that the ruling Liberal Party – which governs with the support of the New Democratic Party - is heading for a heavy defeat at the next general election (which must be held by autumn 2025).
• Against this backdrop, there is a risk that the government prioritises more populist and politically expedient solutions to longstanding

Key View

• We expect the Ukrainian economy to extend its recovery trajectory, growing by 3.5% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025.
• Loose fiscal policy, the stable operation of export routes and the continued optimisation of wartime production and logistics will remain key drivers of growth.
• Nonetheless, Russian airstrikes, labour shortages and electricity

Key View

• We are revising our Chilean GDP growth forecast upwards from 1.8% to 2.7%, which will strongly outpace 2023’s marginal 0.2% expansion.
• Strength in copper exports and a rebound in domestic demand will drive growth over the coming quarters.
• Risks to our forecast are tilted slightly to the downside as the Banco Central de Chile may make fewer

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• The introduction of an hourly minimum wage requirement in the Netherlands in January 2024 will reduce labour cost pressures for employers. The new rate replaces the daily, weekly and monthly minimum wage requirement.
• While the overall wage is still relatively high, the Netherlands will remain an attractive market for employers due to high

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• On May 22, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that a UK general election will be held on July 4.
• This date is much earlier than most expected. Sunak may be attempting to take advantage of a pickup in economic activity and confirmation that inflation has fallen to 2.3% y-o-y (in April) to encourage a feelgood factor heading into the vote.
• We

The Latest: On May 15 2024, the Polish retailer Zabka, the largest convenience store chain in Poland, opened a store in Romania, its first outside of Poland. This expansion follows the announcement in December 2023 of a majority stake purchase of DRIM Daniel Distributie, a local distribution company of consumer goods, which was given regulatory

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• In 2023, Tunisia’s olive oil exports amounted to a record TND3.81bn compared to TND2.50bn in 2022 and an average of TND2.00bn per annum in 2018-2022. Several factors contributed to robust export sales including a sharp downturn in EU olive oil production and continued tightness in world edible oil markets. We expect that Tunisian exports