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• In line with expectations, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its deposit rate from 4.00% to 3.75% during its June 6 policy meeting. 
• We expect that the ECB will keep the deposit rate unchanged in its next policy decision on July 18, and forecast that it will cut it by only a further 50 basis points to 3.25% by the end of 2024. 
• We

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• Brazil's medical devices market will grow at a mid single-digits from 2023 to 2028, driven by increased healthcare budget allocations. 
• New regulations will accelerate device approvals in Brazil, supporting the long-term growth of the market. 
• The US will remain Brazil’s most dominant medical device trade partner due to strong trade relations

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• We have kept our forecasts for the Polish end-2024 policy rate unchanged at 5.75% after the National Bank of Poland (NBP) meeting on June 5.
• Ongoing concerns about fiscal policy changes and elevated core inflation will prompt caution by the Monetary Policy Council for the remainder of the year.
• We expect the NBP to begin easing in Q224 as

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• In this article, we consider ‘wild card’ or unexpected developments that could affect our core view that the UK’s main opposition Labour party will form a government after the July 4 election. 
• Both the Conservatives and Labour will see intense scrutiny on the campaign trail, which could lead to notable gaffes or a scandal coming to light.
• Th

The Latest: On June 4, 2024, Toyota and Mazda announced that they would temporarily suspend vehicle production and exports of certain models after the automakers admitted to irregularities in their Japanese safety tests, Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism states that the investigation identified six models affected by

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• The Port of Maputo in Mozambique is on track to strengthen its role as a pivotal logistics hub in Southern Africa, driven by the MPDC'S strategic investment of USD600mn to enhance terminal facilities by 2026. This initiative is part of a more expansive USD2bn investment plan aimed at broadening the port's capacity and infrastructure by 2058

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• We expect Ukraine to record current account deficits in 2024 (-6.5% of GDP) and 2025 (-5.7%).
• Our forecasts suggest deeper current account deficits relative to 2023 (-5.3%) due to changes in the structure of US aid which narrow the secondary income surplus. 
• Long-term concessional lending from international partners will continue to offset

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• We have reduced our forecasts for Kuwait's real GDP growth from 1.0% to 0.7% for 2024 and from 4.5% to 2.7% for 2025 after the OPEC+ decision to extend production cuts and only gradually start bringing oil back to the market from September 2024 onwards. 
• Slower oil production growth will reduce Kuwait’s exports, given that oil accounts for

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• We have revised up our forecast for the UAE’s 2024 current account surplus from 10.8% of GDP previously to 11.8% of GDP, despite the extension of OPEC+ supply cuts, as we become more upbeat about services exports.
• In 2025, we now expect larger surplus of 11.0% of GDP against 10.4% previously due to a more pronounced increase in hydrocarbon

The Latest: On May 24 2024, the Spain-based hospitality company Atzaro Group announced its plans to launch a new hotel in Cape Town, South Africa in June 2024. The Atzaro Cape Town hotel will offer seven luxury suites, as well as guided activities including hiking, whale-watching and mountain biking. The hotel will also offer excursions such as