Articles

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• Israel has taken over the Rafah Crossing despite Hamas accepting a ceasefire agreement. The operation will last several months and will likely worsen humanitarian conditions in Gaza and increase the civilian death toll. 
• We think that Israel’s operations in Rafah will intensify the international backlash against Israel, even from its closest

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• We expect rising electronics exports, growing inbound tourism and remittances to support the current account balance in 2024.
• However, we also expect an uptick in coal imports due to heatwaves, a poorer trade balance specifically in steel due to heightened competition from China in Vietnam's steel market.
• Overall, we think the picture is

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• We think that the Bank of Thailand will now cut rates as soon as its next meeting in June. That said, we are still expecting only two rounds of cuts this year. 
• Despite our view that interest rate cuts will do little to address the current challenges the economy is facing, sustained dissent among committee members is a reliable indicator of

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• While Malawi's local vehicle market will remain subdued in 2024, as the continued devaluation of the currency drives up the cost of importing vehicles, vehicle first registrations in 2024 will find support from the increased vehicle imports of 2023.
• The main drivers behind the potential for Malawi's vehicle market over the medium term

We expect many developed market (DM) central banks to start easing monetary policy by mid-year to support economic growth and alleviate financial strains. Simultaneously, many emerging market (EM) central banks will continue to relax monetary policy. This projected shift towards monetary easing, however, is likely to proceed with caution and

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• Malaysia's deepwater explorations are expected to accelerate as more investments are directed towards underexplored areas.
• International oil companies (IOCs) will continue to be crucial for Malaysia's deepwater success.
• Malaysia could experience a significant increase in exploration expenditures in 2024 as IOCs prepare

Latest Development: On May 2, the Planning and Statistics Authority (PSA) published preliminary GDP figures showing Qatar’s real GDP growth at 1.2% y-o-y in Q3 2023. The hydrocarbon sector expanded by 2.3% y-o-y, while the non-oil economy grew by 0.6% y-o-y compared to the same quarter in 2022.

Forecast Implications: Although growth in the

Key View: Over 2024, we expect an increase in the total tourist arrivals to Greece, with growth building on a full recovery to pre-Covid (2019) levels in 2023. Over the medium term (2024-2028), we forecast arrivals to continue expanding in line with increased arrivals from traditional and emerging major source markets for arrivals. Tourism

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• President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) remains in a tricky position with regard to pursuing his policy goals, with Congress likely to remain gridlocked until after the municipal elections scheduled for October. 
• These elections will serve as an important test of national parties’ support. A poor performance for Lula’s Partido dos

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• Following a predicted expansion of the Polish macroeconomy, we anticipate that both public and private healthcare sectors in Poland will experience robust growth.
• The utilisation of private healthcare services in Poland is expected to continue its upward trend, as an increasing number of individuals opt for a combination of public and