Articles

Key View

• The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut rates by 50bps to 5.25% on May 2 2024, as we had expected, while adopting a less dovish tone. This has prompted us to keep our end-2024 policy rate forecast unchanged at 4.25%.
• A firmer recovery in economic activity in 2024, which will drive higher inflationary pressure from H224, underpins our more-hawkish

Key View:

• Governments across the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region will continue to prioritise the enhancement of their pharmaceutical sectors as a critical component of state policy.
• Investment will be specifically devoted to improving market access and intellectual property (IP) barriers.
• Despite reforms, the region still lags behind developed markets

Key View

• Malaysia's deepwater explorations are expected to accelerate as more investments are directed towards underexplored areas.
• International oil companies (IOCs) will continue to be crucial for Malaysia's deepwater success.
• Malaysia could experience a significant increase in exploration expenditures in 2024 as IOCs prepare

Latest Development: On May 2, the Planning and Statistics Authority (PSA) published preliminary GDP figures showing Qatar’s real GDP growth at 1.2% y-o-y in Q3 2023. The hydrocarbon sector expanded by 2.3% y-o-y, while the non-oil economy grew by 0.6% y-o-y compared to the same quarter in 2022.

Forecast Implications: Although growth in the

Key View: Over 2024, we expect an increase in the total tourist arrivals to Greece, with growth building on a full recovery to pre-Covid (2019) levels in 2023. Over the medium term (2024-2028), we forecast arrivals to continue expanding in line with increased arrivals from traditional and emerging major source markets for arrivals. Tourism

Key View

• Following a predicted expansion of the Polish macroeconomy, we anticipate that both public and private healthcare sectors in Poland will experience robust growth.
• The utilisation of private healthcare services in Poland is expected to continue its upward trend, as an increasing number of individuals opt for a combination of public and

Key View

• Access to cell therapies will improve across emerging markets following the approval and market launch of the first India-produced CAR-T cell therapy.
• Aging populations and low health expenditure will continue to drive demand for lower-cost cancer therapies.
• Growing demand for cancer care in India will put pressure on the government to grow

Key View

• We have lowered our forecast for Saudi Arabia's 2024 GDP growth from 2.4% to 2.1% due to a sharper than expected slowdown in the non-oil economy, as seen in Q1 2024.
• Oil production will normalise in 2024, putting headline growth in positive territory in the second half of the year, after a significant contraction in 2023 due to OPEC+

Key View

• We anticipate that Iceland's economy will expand by 1.5% in 2024, a slight decrease from our previous forecast of 2.0%, and by 3.1% in 2025 (previous forecast: 2.6%). 
• Whilst disinflation will support an expansion in real wages this year, the private consumption outlook will continue to be weighed down by tight monetary conditions for some

Key View

• We expect that Pakistan’s wheat harvest in the 2024/25 (May-April) season, that began at the start of April and is due to be completed in mid-June, will amount to a record 28.8mn tonnes, in line with USDA estimates. In tandem with a projected domestic wheat consumption growth rate of 1.5% y-o-y in the same season, Pakistan’s wheat