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What The Consumer Team is Watching In The Week Ahead 

In the week ahead (April 29 to May 03 2024), our Country Risk Team will be watching the Peruvian Consumer Price Inflation print: We expect that headline inflation will continue edging down in April, from 3.0% y-o-y (1.0% m-o-m) in March. This should allow the Banco Central de Reserva del Peru

Latest Development: T-Mobile USA has agreed to partner with private equity company EQT as co-investors in Lumos Networks, a regional fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) provider. The aim is to invest a total of USD1.45bn to expand Lumos' fibre networks past 3.5mn premises by the end of 2028. The deal represents the most significant expansion of T-Mobile's

The Latest: Flooding and heavy rainfall have returned to Eastern Africa with the start of the long rain season which occurs between March and May. Specifically, over the last week of March and in the first three weeks of April, above-average precipitation has been a significant concern in Kenya. The Kenyan Meteorological Department has issued yet

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• In 2023, Volkswagen reported solid results, driven by higher vehicle deliveries and positive effects from pricing and its product mix, with BEV volumes reaching 8.3% of total vehicle deliveries, up from 6.9% in 2022.
• Volkswagen's market share in Mainland China is likely to remain under pressure until at least late 2025 or 2026, when the next

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• We have revised up our forecast for Brazilian real GDP growth in 2024 from 1.6% to an above-consensus 2.1%, while we have modestly lowered our 2025 projection from 2.0% to 1.8%. 
• Data for the early part of 2024 have generally been quite strong, with domestic demand remaining resilient. Consumer spending in particular has benefitted from a

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• We forecast that real GDP will expand by 3.1% in Barbados in 2024, a solid performance given strong base effects.
• Private consumption will overwhelmingly be the main growth driver, underpinned by the strong performance of the tourism sector boosting employment and wages in the sector.
• The largest risk to growth is posed by any geopolitically

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• We retain our view that the Bank of Botswana (BoB) will hold its policy rate at 2.40% over the remainder of 2024, following the decision to hold the benchmark monetary policy rate steady on April 26.
• Inflation is expected to trend near the lower end of the BoB’s 3.0-6.0% inflation target range over the coming quarters, underpinning our

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• UK drug shortages will likely persist due to ongoing post-Brexit access challenges, alongside wider regional supply chain issues. 
• The UK's pharmaceutical sector will continue to present a less attractive prospect for investment compared to EU markets.
• Amidst Brexit's complexities, the UK government will continue to introduce new measures to

Please Note: BMI is enhancing its risk analysis with a new scoring system following its acquisition of GeoQuant, a market-leading provider of political risk data. From March 27 2024, risk scores are inverted: zero now represents the lowest risk and 100 represents the highest risk. This allows for clearer, industry-standard assessments. For further

Key View: Over 2024, we forecast total arrivals to Mauritius to reach 1.5mn, up from 1.3mn arrivals in 2023, growing by 14.2% y-o-y. We expect Mauritius’ 2024 arrivals to fully recover to pre-Covid levels in 2019, while surpassing the historic peak in 2018. Arrivals will continue to increase over the medium term (2024-2028) with the market’s beach