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• We expect Ukraine to record current account deficits in 2024 (-6.5% of GDP) and 2025 (-5.7%).
• Our forecasts suggest deeper current account deficits relative to 2023 (-5.3%) due to changes in the structure of US aid which narrow the secondary income surplus. 
• Long-term concessional lending from international partners will continue to offset

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• We have reduced our forecasts for Kuwait's real GDP growth from 1.0% to 0.7% for 2024 and from 4.5% to 2.7% for 2025 after the OPEC+ decision to extend production cuts and only gradually start bringing oil back to the market from September 2024 onwards. 
• Slower oil production growth will reduce Kuwait’s exports, given that oil accounts for

Latest Development: On June 2, as widely expected, the governing MORENA party’s Claudia Sheinbaum was the comfortable victor of Mexico’s presidential elections, and as a result will become Mexico’s first female president on October 1. Preliminary polling – the official count does not begin until June 5 – indicates that Sheinbaum won at least 58.0%

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• TotalEnergies' FID on the Kaminho Project reaffirms Angola's appeal as an attractive destination for upstream investment.
• The long-term outlook remains dour due to the natural decline at existing fields and the limited exploration success necessary to drive the next wave of offshore developments.
• Additional greenfield oil developments are

Key View: The planned reduction in subsidies in Egypt, including a significant increase in bread, fuel, and electricity prices, will raise month-on-month inflation and push inflation up to around 30% in 2024 and 18%-20% in 2025, which will weigh on disposable incomes of the Egyptian consumer. This reduction in disposable income is expected to

The Latest: On May 24 2024, the Spain-based hospitality company Atzaro Group announced its plans to launch a new hotel in Cape Town, South Africa in June 2024. The Atzaro Cape Town hotel will offer seven luxury suites, as well as guided activities including hiking, whale-watching and mountain biking. The hotel will also offer excursions such as

Please Note: BMI is enhancing its risk analysis with a new scoring system following its acquisition of GeoQuant, a market-leading provider of political risk data. From March 27 2024, risk scores are inverted: zero now represents the lowest risk and 100 represents the highest risk. This allows for clearer, industry-standard assessments. For further

The Latest: On May 28 2024, the Irish fast fashion retailer, Primark, opened its first store in Hungary after announcing plans in 2019 to expand in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). This store opening marks Primark's 17th international market and makes Hungary its sixth market in the CEE region.

Implications: Known for its competitive prices

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• Despite government commitments to hold the peg through the rest of 2024, we believe a one-time devaluation (as a first step towards removing the cepo) or acceleration of the crawling peg in Q4 2024 is likely. This underpins our forecast that the peso is likely to average ARS1,050/USD in 2024 and end the year at ARS1,200/USD.
• We forecast that

The Latest: On May 29 2024, Merck announced the acquisition of EyeBio, a clinical-stage biotechnology company specialising in ophthalmology drug development. Under the terms of the agreement, Merck will pay US1.3bn upfront and another US1.7bn contingent on achieving certain development, regulatory and commercial milestones