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• We expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut its deposit rate by 25 basis points from its current high of 4.00% to 3.75% in June, versus our prior expectation for a cut in July. We retain our forecast for it to be lowered only slightly further to a year-end rate of 3.25%.
• Constrained regional growth prospects will motivate the ECB to

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• Ongoing drugmaker investment will boost Singapore’s status as a key pharmaceutical hub.
• The government of Singapore will continue to take a proactive role in developing the market’s biomedical manufacturing industry. 
• Through AstraZeneca’s investment, Singapore's position as an important trading hub for the pharmaceutical sector in the

In Sub-Saharan Africa, e-commerce is adapting to low bank account ownership by integrating mobile money and hybrid payment systems. With only 3% credit card and 24% debit card ownership in 2021, services like Safaricom’s M-Pesa and MTN's MoMo are pivotal, offering mobile money accounts to all consumer groups. Hybrid payment systems combine online

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• We forecast that Tanzania’s real GDP growth will accelerate from 5.1% in 2023 to 5.4% in 2024, after the Q4 2023 growth print came in at 4.6%, from 5.3% in Q3 2024. 
• Tanzania’s improving investment environment will continue to encourage greater private sector credit demand and investment. Meanwhile, the government has signalled that public

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• On May 22, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that a UK general election will be held on July 4.
• This date is much earlier than most expected. Sunak may be attempting to take advantage of a pickup in economic activity and confirmation that inflation has fallen to 2.3% y-o-y (in April) to encourage a feelgood factor heading into the vote.
• We

The Latest: On May 15 2024, the Polish retailer Zabka, the largest convenience store chain in Poland, opened a store in Romania, its first outside of Poland. This expansion follows the announcement in December 2023 of a majority stake purchase of DRIM Daniel Distributie, a local distribution company of consumer goods, which was given regulatory

Please Note: BMI is enhancing its risk analysis with a new scoring system following its acquisition of GeoQuant, a market-leading provider of political risk data. From March 27 2024, risk scores are inverted: zero now represents the lowest risk and 100 represents the highest risk. This allows for clearer, industry-standard assessments. For further

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• In line with our Global team’s view of the Fed’s monetary policy, we think that the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) will gradually cut the base rate to 4.65% by end-2024 starting in July. Risks of delayed rate cuts are high.
• Stubbornly robust increase in rent prices prompted us to revise up our 2024 forecast for Dubai’s average inflation

Key View

• We anticipate that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will lower the policy rate by 50 basis points (bps) in 2024, starting in Q424. 
• Inflationary pressures are showing signs of easing. However, we believe the RBNZ will want to see inflation closer to its 1.0-3.0% target before starting its loosening cycle.
• The risks to our policy rate

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• The Gulf Corporation Council markets will continue to have the lowest electricity prices in the MENA region, due to large energy subsidies.  
• We expect residential users to pay higher prices than industrial and commercial users over 2024 as MENA governments prioritise economic growth, competitiveness, and job creation.
• Oman is expected to