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• In line with USDA forecasts, we expect that West African cotton production will increase in the 2024/25 season due to favourable weather forecasts and an increase in harvested area.
• Although the expected increase in production for 2024/25 is positive for the West African cotton industry, we highlight that production is still below 2021/22

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• We now expect that the Banque Central du Congo (BCC) will cut its benchmark policy rate by 1,000 basis points (bps) from 25.00% to 15.00% by end-2024—against our previous forecast of a year-end rate of 10.00%—following a decision to maintain the current policy rate at its Q2 2024 meeting.
• While sticky inflation disincentivised a policy pivot

Global Growth: The outlook for the global economy has remained relatively unchanged since April, and we continue to forecast global growth to come in at 2.4% in 2024. Although this marks a slowdown from the 2.6% registered last year, it is higher than our January projection of 2.1%, reflecting the relative resilience of the

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• We now forecast real GDP growth of 4.1% in Papua New Guinea in 2024, down from our previous forecast of 4.4%.
• While a recovery in mining exports will drive an acceleration in growth, elevated political instability, renewed inflationary pressures and tighter monetary conditions remain headwinds to domestic demand.
• Risks are skewed to the

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• We expect the National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT) to adopt a broadly neutral monetary policy stance over the coming quarters.
• We forecast that inflation will ease from an average 6.4% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024, below the NRBT's reference rate of 5.0%, while growth is likely to remain relatively subdued.
• We note risks that a renewed increase

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• We forecast 2024 real GDP growth of 2.7% in French Polynesia, down from an estimated 3.4% in 2023, as the tourism-led recovery loses some momentum.
• We expect tourism will remain an important driver of growth, while moderate inflation and easing monetary conditions will support consumption and investment activity.
• Risks to our growth forecast

Key View

• The introduction of an hourly minimum wage requirement in the Netherlands in January 2024 will reduce labour cost pressures for employers. The new rate replaces the daily, weekly and monthly minimum wage requirement.
• While the overall wage is still relatively high, the Netherlands will remain an attractive market for employers due to high