Articles

Key Political Risks To Watch In Remainder Of 2018

Country Risk / Global / Fri 20 Jul, 2018

SUMMARY TABLE - Global Political Risks In 2018
Source: BMI. Red denotes greater risk in terms of immediacy, impact, and likelihood, based on our own qualitative assessment. STPRI=Short-Term Political Risk Index
SUMMARY TABLE - Global Political Risks In 2018  
EventMain risksWarning signalsPossible
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Key Monthly Views: Stabilisation, But Growth Risks Remain

Country Risk / Global / Thu 19 Jul, 2018

Temporary Stabilisation In Global Growth: Negative economic data surprises have started to abate, particularly in the eurozone, which suggests that global economic growth will remain relatively robust throughout 2018. We forecast the global economy to expand by 3.3% this year, which is below the consensus of 3.7%, on account of slightly below

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Below Consensus Latam Growth, Eurozone Inflation

Country Risk / Latin America / Wed 18 Jul, 2018

In Latin America, our growth forecasts are below consensus in a number of economies, including Bolivia, Brazil, Ecuador, Guatemala and Uruguay. The downward revision to our forecast Brazilian real GDP growth rate from 2.5% y-o-y to 1.6% puts us below Bloomberg consensus of 1.8%. The shift reflects lingering investor uncertainty over the upcoming

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Top 20 Construction Markets: Data Pack

Infrastructure / Global / Wed 18 Jul, 2018

Key View: Over the coming decade emerging market construction industries will rise up the ranks of the largest construction industries globally. Scale will therefore no longer be the preserve more developed markets, meaning investors and contractors alike will need to increasingly assess markets based on risk, rather than traditionally balancing

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Sub-Saharan Africa Healthcare Shaped By Competing Factors

Pharma & Healthcare / Africa / Wed 18 Jul, 2018

Key View:

  • Sub-Saharan Africa's healthcare market will continue to expand at pace with robust economic, demographic and epidemiological drivers in place.
  • A rising chronic disease burden, large-scale urbanisation, and ageing populations will be major drivers of healthcare expenditure in the region.
  • Despite this, the region's healthcare markets
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Middle East e-Commerce: A Market In Transition

Telecommunications / China / Tue 17 Jul, 2018

In many respects, the Middle East is a market in transition. This includes the e-Commerce sector, which is only beginning to come into its own as the region's economies look to diversify away from petrochemicals to more sustainable industries. Overall, there is a lot of promise for e-Commerce in the Middle East, with Saudi Arabia and the United

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New Brexit Proposals Risk Damaging Banking Sector

Operational Risk / United Kingdom / Fri 13 Jul, 2018

Key View: Although the UK banking sector has proven resilient to Brexit uncertainty, we warn that with the official exit date less than a year away and little progress on reaching a settlement deal with the EU, industry headwinds are intensifying. While it is difficult to gauge the likelihood and impact of a serious shock to the sector, we believe

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