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• In line with expectations, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered its deposit rate from 4.00% to 3.75% during its June 6 policy meeting. 
• We expect that the ECB will keep the deposit rate unchanged in its next policy decision on July 18, and forecast that it will cut it by only a further 50 basis points to 3.25% by the end of 2024. 
• We

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• We have kept our forecasts for the Polish end-2024 policy rate unchanged at 5.75% after the National Bank of Poland (NBP) meeting on June 5.
• Ongoing concerns about fiscal policy changes and elevated core inflation will prompt caution by the Monetary Policy Council for the remainder of the year.
• We expect the NBP to begin easing in Q224 as

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• In this article, we consider ‘wild card’ or unexpected developments that could affect our core view that the UK’s main opposition Labour party will form a government after the July 4 election. 
• Both the Conservatives and Labour will see intense scrutiny on the campaign trail, which could lead to notable gaffes or a scandal coming to light.
• Th

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• We expect Ukraine to record current account deficits in 2024 (-6.5% of GDP) and 2025 (-5.7%).
• Our forecasts suggest deeper current account deficits relative to 2023 (-5.3%) due to changes in the structure of US aid which narrow the secondary income surplus. 
• Long-term concessional lending from international partners will continue to offset

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• We have reduced our forecasts for Kuwait's real GDP growth from 1.0% to 0.7% for 2024 and from 4.5% to 2.7% for 2025 after the OPEC+ decision to extend production cuts and only gradually start bringing oil back to the market from September 2024 onwards. 
• Slower oil production growth will reduce Kuwait’s exports, given that oil accounts for

The Latest: On June 4, 2024, Toyota and Mazda announced that they would temporarily suspend vehicle production and exports of certain models after the automakers admitted to irregularities in their Japanese safety tests, Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism states that the investigation identified six models affected by

Please Note: BMI is enhancing its risk analysis with a new scoring system following its acquisition of GeoQuant, a market-leading provider of political risk data. From March 27 2024, risk scores are inverted: zero now represents the lowest risk and 100 represents the highest risk. This allows for clearer, industry-standard assessments. For further

Latest Development: On June 2, as widely expected, the governing MORENA party’s Claudia Sheinbaum was the comfortable victor of Mexico’s presidential elections, and as a result will become Mexico’s first female president on October 1. Preliminary polling – the official count does not begin until June 5 – indicates that Sheinbaum won at least 58.0%

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• TotalEnergies' FID on the Kaminho Project reaffirms Angola's appeal as an attractive destination for upstream investment.
• The long-term outlook remains dour due to the natural decline at existing fields and the limited exploration success necessary to drive the next wave of offshore developments.
• Additional greenfield oil developments are

Key View: The planned reduction in subsidies in Egypt, including a significant increase in bread, fuel, and electricity prices, will raise month-on-month inflation and push inflation up to around 30% in 2024 and 18%-20% in 2025, which will weigh on disposable incomes of the Egyptian consumer. This reduction in disposable income is expected to