Articles

Key view:  We have a positive outlook for consumer spending in the Philippines in 2024.  Easing inflationary pressures, a slightly favourable labour market and lower interest rates form the base for consumer spending growth. The key risks to this outlook include prolonged inflation; decrease in remittances, which fluctuate as a result of external

Latest Development: Headline inflation rose in the capital Colombo to 1.5% y-o-y in April from 0.9% in March. One reason was that transport prices flipped back into inflation at 5.0% y-o-y, from 2.0% deflation. The Colombo data suggest that national headline inflation rose in April, but remained within the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s (CBSL) 3-7%

Key View: 

• We think that Thailand will now run a wider surplus of 2.9% of GDP compared to our previous forecast of 2.6%. Still, this will be just shy of the pre-Covid size. 
• Global demand prospects are improving which bodes well for Thailand’s export performance. 
• The one key factor holding back the country’s external health is tourism. Even if

Latest Development: On May 1 2024, Cigalah Healthcare, a prominent Saudi Arabia-based healthcare company, entered into a collaboration with Abdi Ibrahim, a Turkiye-based pharmaceutical company. Under the agreement Cigalah Healthcare will import various pharmaceutical products including central nervous system, cardiovascular, respiratory and

• We forecast the krone to unwind recent losses in the near-term and appreciate to an end-2024 rate of NOK11.32 per EUR, from its

Key View

• Healthcare expenditure will benefit from increased government spending despite projected below-trend GDP growth in 2024. 
• Increased digital health investment aims to create a more integrated and efficient health information system that will deepen collaboration between healthcare providers.
• Private healthcare expenditure will benefit from

Key View

• We expect the recovery of the Serbian economy to continue in 2024 as consumer spending rebounds. We forecast GDP to expand by 3.0% after a 2.5% expansion in 2023.   
• Declining inflation alongside a still tight labour market will likely support consumer purchasing power in 2024, allowing for a recovery of private consumption growth from 0.8%

Key View: We forecast Morocco's arrivals to be strong in 2024 with growth driven by European markets. Looking ahead, we forecast European markets to continue to dominate Morocco's arrivals over the remainder of our medium-term forecast period to 2028. This is due to the market’s appeal as an affordable beach holiday destination for European

Key View

• Israel has taken over the Rafah Crossing despite Hamas accepting a ceasefire agreement. The operation will last several months and will likely worsen humanitarian conditions in Gaza and increase the civilian death toll. 
• We think that Israel’s operations in Rafah will intensify the international backlash against Israel, even from its closest