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• While Malawi's local vehicle market will remain subdued in 2024, as the continued devaluation of the currency drives up the cost of importing vehicles, vehicle first registrations in 2024 will find support from the increased vehicle imports of 2023.
• The main drivers behind the potential for Malawi's vehicle market over the medium term

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• We expect rising electronics exports, growing inbound tourism and remittances to support the current account balance in 2024.
• However, we also expect an uptick in coal imports due to heatwaves, a poorer trade balance specifically in steel due to heightened competition from China in Vietnam's steel market.
• Overall, we think the picture is

Latest Development: On May 2, the Planning and Statistics Authority (PSA) published preliminary GDP figures showing Qatar’s real GDP growth at 1.2% y-o-y in Q3 2023. The hydrocarbon sector expanded by 2.3% y-o-y, while the non-oil economy grew by 0.6% y-o-y compared to the same quarter in 2022.

Forecast Implications: Although growth in the

Key View: Over 2024, we expect an increase in the total tourist arrivals to Greece, with growth building on a full recovery to pre-Covid (2019) levels in 2023. Over the medium term (2024-2028), we forecast arrivals to continue expanding in line with increased arrivals from traditional and emerging major source markets for arrivals. Tourism

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• Following a predicted expansion of the Polish macroeconomy, we anticipate that both public and private healthcare sectors in Poland will experience robust growth.
• The utilisation of private healthcare services in Poland is expected to continue its upward trend, as an increasing number of individuals opt for a combination of public and

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• The Czech National Bank (CNB) cut rates by 50bps to 5.25% on May 2 2024, as we had expected, while adopting a less dovish tone. This has prompted us to keep our end-2024 policy rate forecast unchanged at 4.25%.
• A firmer recovery in economic activity in 2024, which will drive higher inflationary pressure from H224, underpins our more-hawkish

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• Governments across the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region will continue to prioritise the enhancement of their pharmaceutical sectors as a critical component of state policy.
• Investment will be specifically devoted to improving market access and intellectual property (IP) barriers.
• Despite reforms, the region still lags behind developed markets

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• Malaysia's deepwater explorations are expected to accelerate as more investments are directed towards underexplored areas.
• International oil companies (IOCs) will continue to be crucial for Malaysia's deepwater success.
• Malaysia could experience a significant increase in exploration expenditures in 2024 as IOCs prepare

Key View

• President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) remains in a tricky position with regard to pursuing his policy goals, with Congress likely to remain gridlocked until after the municipal elections scheduled for October. 
• These elections will serve as an important test of national parties’ support. A poor performance for Lula’s Partido dos

Key View: In 2024, we expect Mexican consumer spending to slow but remain positive, driven by easing inflation, reduced interest rates, and a resilient labor market. Consumer confidence is at a post-Covid high, underpinning solid spending above pre-pandemic levels, despite signs of stagnation in retail sales growth. Slight increases in unemployment