Articles

Key View: Despite surpassing growth forecasts, the Russian economy faces challenges from sanctions and industrial shifts. The Ukraine conflict is entering a static phase, with a centralized political system likely keeping policy changes minimal. The Central Bank may hold interest rates steady, while consumer spending growth remains modest due to

The Latest: In April 2024, Spain-based hotel group Meliá Hotels International announced its plans to open two new luxury hotels in Thailand over the medium term (2024-2028). The company will open Meliá Pattaya City hotel in December 2024, as well as Paradisus Jomtien Resort in 2028. Meliá’s investment will be supported by its partnership with

Key View

• Bayanat AI PLC (Bayanat) and Al Yah Satellite Communications Company (Al Yah) have agreed to merge to form SPACE42, a MENA AI-powered space technology company.
• We believe that the move is set to capitalise on a market gap for satellite broadband and other non-terrestrial networks-based (NTNs) services in the MENA region where SpaceX's

Key View

• On April 29, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced that he will remain in office after halting duties on April 24 amid a corruption scandal allegedly involving his wife. 
• The decision to retain his position alleviates some immediate pressures on political risk. 
• However, we believe that the event reflects the broader fractured nature

Key View

• We forecast that Romanian real GDP growth will accelerate modestly from 2.1% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025.
• We see easing pressures on real purchasing power driving private consumption to contribute 2.4 percentage points to headline growth in 2024, up from 2.0pp in 2023.
• However, after a temporary positive contribution to growth in

Key View

• In 2023, Volkswagen reported solid results, driven by higher vehicle deliveries and positive effects from pricing and its product mix, with BEV volumes reaching 8.3% of total vehicle deliveries, up from 6.9% in 2022.
• Volkswagen's market share in Mainland China is likely to remain under pressure until at least late 2025 or 2026, when the next

What The Consumer Team is Watching In The Week Ahead 

In the week ahead (April 29 to May 03 2024), our Country Risk Team will be watching the Peruvian Consumer Price Inflation print: We expect that headline inflation will continue edging down in April, from 3.0% y-o-y (1.0% m-o-m) in March. This should allow the Banco Central de Reserva del Peru

Latest Development: T-Mobile USA has agreed to partner with private equity company EQT as co-investors in Lumos Networks, a regional fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) provider. The aim is to invest a total of USD1.45bn to expand Lumos' fibre networks past 3.5mn premises by the end of 2028. The deal represents the most significant expansion of T-Mobile's

The Latest: Flooding and heavy rainfall have returned to Eastern Africa with the start of the long rain season which occurs between March and May. Specifically, over the last week of March and in the first three weeks of April, above-average precipitation has been a significant concern in Kenya. The Kenyan Meteorological Department has issued yet

Key View

• We have revised up our forecast for Brazilian real GDP growth in 2024 from 1.6% to an above-consensus 2.1%, while we have modestly lowered our 2025 projection from 2.0% to 1.8%. 
• Data for the early part of 2024 have generally been quite strong, with domestic demand remaining resilient. Consumer spending in particular has benefitted from a