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• We maintain our forecast for Czech real GDP growth of 1.6% in 2024, following the Q1 2024 GDP growth rate of 0.5% q-o-q, which was only marginally below our expectation of 0.6%.
• After a sharp 3.1% contraction in 2023, we forecast Czech private consumption to rebound by a modest 1.9% in 2024 as spending is bolstered by a recovery in real

The Latest: In April 2024, Spain-based hotel group Meliá Hotels International announced its plans to open two new luxury hotels in Thailand over the medium term (2024-2028). The company will open Meliá Pattaya City hotel in December 2024, as well as Paradisus Jomtien Resort in 2028. Meliá’s investment will be supported by its partnership with

What The Consumer Team is Watching In The Week Ahead 

In the week ahead (April 29 to May 03 2024), our Country Risk Team will be watching the Peruvian Consumer Price Inflation print: We expect that headline inflation will continue edging down in April, from 3.0% y-o-y (1.0% m-o-m) in March. This should allow the Banco Central de Reserva del Peru

Latest Development: T-Mobile USA has agreed to partner with private equity company EQT as co-investors in Lumos Networks, a regional fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) provider. The aim is to invest a total of USD1.45bn to expand Lumos' fibre networks past 3.5mn premises by the end of 2028. The deal represents the most significant expansion of T-Mobile's

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• We forecast that Romanian real GDP growth will accelerate modestly from 2.1% in 2023 to 2.7% in 2024 and 3.0% in 2025.
• We see easing pressures on real purchasing power driving private consumption to contribute 2.4 percentage points to headline growth in 2024, up from 2.0pp in 2023.
• However, after a temporary positive contribution to growth in

The Latest: Flooding and heavy rainfall have returned to Eastern Africa with the start of the long rain season which occurs between March and May. Specifically, over the last week of March and in the first three weeks of April, above-average precipitation has been a significant concern in Kenya. The Kenyan Meteorological Department has issued yet

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• On April 29, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced that he will remain in office after halting duties on April 24 amid a corruption scandal allegedly involving his wife. 
• The decision to retain his position alleviates some immediate pressures on political risk. 
• However, we believe that the event reflects the broader fractured nature

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• In 2023, Volkswagen reported solid results, driven by higher vehicle deliveries and positive effects from pricing and its product mix, with BEV volumes reaching 8.3% of total vehicle deliveries, up from 6.9% in 2022.
• Volkswagen's market share in Mainland China is likely to remain under pressure until at least late 2025 or 2026, when the next

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• UK drug shortages will likely persist due to ongoing post-Brexit access challenges, alongside wider regional supply chain issues. 
• The UK's pharmaceutical sector will continue to present a less attractive prospect for investment compared to EU markets.
• Amidst Brexit's complexities, the UK government will continue to introduce new measures to

Please Note: BMI is enhancing its risk analysis with a new scoring system following its acquisition of GeoQuant, a market-leading provider of political risk data. From March 27 2024, risk scores are inverted: zero now represents the lowest risk and 100 represents the highest risk. This allows for clearer, industry-standard assessments. For further