Articles

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• We expect limited social stability and policy continuity risks following Bassirou Diomaye Faye’s decisive victory over the incumbent-backed Amadou Ba in Senegal’s presidential election, held on March 24.
• Despite the upcoming presidential handover, we do not expect any drastic policy shifts as the opposition coalition lacks majority

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• South Korea's 2023 trade deficit with Mainland China, the first in 30 years, marks a historic shift in its trade relationship with its largest trading partner, culminating from a decade-long decline from a peak surplus in 2013.
• The changing trade patterns underscore China's decreased reliance on South Korean exports and South Korea's

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• Oman's economic growth will increase from 1.6% in 2023 to 2.1% in 2024, driven by normalised hydrocarbon production and a small drop in interest rates in H2 2024. 
• Net exports will contribute positively to growth with a minimal contraction in oil production and a boost in tourism due to diversification efforts.
• However, growth will

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• We flag the approaching EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) deadline as a significant downside risk for East African coffee producers due to the compliance costs and difficulties faced by the smallholder farmers prevalent in the region.
• We highlight the importance of this regulation for East African coffee producers as 41.5% of coffee

The Latest: On March 11 2024, according to news reports, the China Nonferrous Metal Mining Corporation's (CNMC) Chambishi copper smelter in Zambia reduced its production due to power shortages in the country. This follows President Hichilema declaring on February 29 2024 that the ongoing drought constitutes a national disaster and emergency

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• Singapore's Ministry of Communications and Information unveiled that an expert committee is developing a Digital Infrastructure Act to fortify the resilience and security of Singapore's digital infrastructure beyond the current Cybersecurity Act, addressing a wider spectrum of risks to maintain continuous service delivery amidst a

The Latest: On March 25 2024, McDonald's ended its franchise agreement with Abans, its local partner in Sri Lanka, citing alleged issues with hygiene standards. All 12 outlets in the country have since closed.

Implications: Our Country Team forecast a continuous recovery of the wider Sri Lankan economy following the aftermath of the

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• We expect that the Banco de Moçambique (BM) will lower its benchmark policy rate by a further 175 basis points (bps) to 14.00% by end-2024, after cutting by a greater-than-expected 75bps to 15.75% on March 27.
• Limited price pressures and still-high real lending rates will push policymakers to implement further large policy rate cuts

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• We have revised our CAGR forecast upwards due to increased public investment into healthcare infrastructure and now project that Chile’s medical device market will grow at a 2023-2028 CAGR of 7.1% in local currency terms and 8.3% in US dollar terms. 
• We expect medical device import performance to be limited in the short term, but a

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• We expect that below-average precipitation and high temperatures in Southern Africa throughout Q124 will weigh significantly on agricultural production in the region, exacerbating food security challenges. 
• We forecast that corn production in two of the largest corn producers in the region, Zambia and South Africa, will fall in 2024