Bolivarian Endgame: Will Venezuela Default?
The outlook for Venezuela's economy and financial markets has deteriorated significantly in recent months, a fact that BMI has highlighted on numerous occasions. Against a backdrop of increasing investor selectivity and scrutiny of emerging markets (evident by rising yields across many EM fixed income markets), we believe that Venezuela's troubles have to some degree flown under the radar, failing to garner the attention the country's serious imbalances and political risk suggest are warranted. We have become increasingly wary of the possibility of an external debt default in 2014, and have just published a Special Report that brings together relevant Macro, Financial Markets, and Industry analysis over the past several months, highlighting some of the key issues that underscore our concern. In this podcast, Gregan Anderson, of BMI's Latin America Country Risk team, and Julie Beckenstein, from BMI's Oil & Gas team, give their views on Venezuela.