BMI Publishes Special Report: A New Roadmap For The Eurozone, 2014-2018
Although the eurozone crisis has faded from the headlines, little has been fundamentally resolved. Therefore, any renewed crisis in the single-currency area could send shockwaves through the global economy. For now, though, we have used this calm period to fully assess our strategic outlook for the eurozone over the coming five years, and beyond. The result is our new special report, A New Roadmap For The Eurozone, 2014-2018.
The report, which can be purchased from our online store, outlines the following:
- Our new conviction macro strategy for the eurozone following several crucial policy developments that have significantly reduced near-term risks of the currency union disbanding.
- Our outlook for economic growth, fiscal policy, monetary policy, and political and economic reforms in the eurozone.
- Why economic rebalancing in the periphery states is suboptimal and will anchor a new low-growth, high-debt equilibrium.
- Why the eventual configuration of a eurozone banking union will also be suboptimal and risk repeating the mistakes made when the euro was first introduced.
- Risks to our medium-term outlook: deflation, a Franco-German political spat, an ailing Italian economy, and the possibility of further financial and economic fracturing.
The report also presents our concerns for the long term: A market revolt, further debt restructurings, and the possibility of the eurozone becoming less relevant to its member states if deep structural reforms to improve the integrity of the euro area are not pursued.
The report demonstrates BMI’s ability to look beyond near-term trends and utilise our breadth and depth of knowledge to produce a conviction macro strategy relevant to investors with exposure to the eurozone.