Our comprehensive assessment of Bermuda's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Bermuda, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Bermuda's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Bermuda before your competitors.
Bermuda Country Risk
Bermuda's prolonged recession continued into 2014, and we now expect this economic contraction to continue over the coming years. We expect that an international crackdown on offshore financial centres such as Bermuda will lead to a decline in financial services activity, one of the key contributors to the island's economy. Although tourism will rise, it will not be enough to offset tempered insurance activities.
Bermuda's current account will remain in surplus over the course of our 10-year forecast period, though the surplus will decrease to 10.4% of GDP by 2024, down from 17.4% in 2014, in line with our projections for slowing exports of tourism services and secular decline in off-shore finance.
Despite poor growth prospects, Bermuda will remain politically stable over the next 10 years owing to the...
Bermuda Industry Coverage (2)
BMI View: Bermuda has established itself as one of the world's leading offshore insurance markets over the past few years and the island has developed particular expertise in reinsurance and catastrophe insurance underwriting. A slowdown in both these markets globally over recent quarters has restricted the market's expansion, and there has been a wave of consolidation among locally domiciled firms as groups have sought to reduce operating costs. However, we believe that premiums will begin growing at a faster pace through the forecast period to 2020 as an improved regulatory environment and a surge in natural disaster and weather-related events drive business towards Bermuda-based firms....
BMI View: Arrivals growth in the Caribbean will pick up to 2.5% in 2016, reflecting improved visitor numbers from Europe and North America. The Dominican Republic, St Eustatius and Cuba are expecting the highest rate of arrivals growth, but all tourism markets except St Vincent will experience growth in 2016. However, the outbreak of the Zika virus from late 2015 could pose downside risks to 2016 arrivals forecasts.
We currently expect arrivals to the Caribbean to grow by 2.5% in 2016, to 33.5mn, reflecting an improvement from growth of only 0.7% in 2015. We expect the Dominican Republic, Cuba, St Eustatius and St Lucia to post the highest level of arrivals growth in 2016, at around 6%, but we note the positive sign that all Caribbean countries except St Vincent will experience...