Our comprehensive assessment of Belize's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Belize, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Belize's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Belize before your competitors.
Belize Country Risk
Belize Industry Coverage (5)
BMI View: Coffee production in the Central America region will remain at risk over the next few years as the nature of subsistence farming will limit investment into safeguards against diseases such as coffee rust (roya). Countries in Central America are generally dependent on corn imports and we expect the corn production deficit to widen over our forecast period. Strength in the US dollar over this time frame will hurt the capital accounts of the region's countries. We believe the region's sugar industry will post strong growth over the coming years despite low international prices.
|Honduras Agribusiness To Outperform|
|Select Countries - Agribusiness Market Value (USDmn)|
BMI View: We currently forecast an average of 3.6% real growth in Central America's construction industry value for 2015, which is considerably higher than the regional average for 2014 at 1.3%. We expect Honduras and El Salvador's construction industries to return to positive growth in 2015 on the back of increasing government support for infrastructure projects and a strengthening project pipeline, particularly in the transport sector.
Despite the small size of their construction industries, Central American countries present a wide range of small-scale opportunities (albeit the inter-oceanic canal projects) as the region aims...
Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
Belize Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare
BMI View: Growing demand for pharmaceuticals, compounded by underdeveloped manufacturing capabilities will ensure commercial opportunities for foreign investors within Central America over the long term. Multinational drugmakers and medical suppliers will also continue to benefit from favourable tax incentives and growing medicine consumption driven by a booming burden of chronic disease. Sluggish economies and political instability will remain problematic, though pharmaceutical and health expenditure will continue to rise throughout the region.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Pharmaceuticals: USD3.7bn in 2014 to USD3.9bn in 2015; +5.6%. Our forecast has been maintained since Q315...
Number porting in Panama increased 37.4% in 2014, highlighting that the population is increasingly more willing to take advantage of better available deals as they switch operators.
It is likely that the share of pre-paid mobile subscriptions in Costa Rica will increase in 2015 as the regulator SUTEL made it mandatory for pre-paid users to register to boost mobile number portability in the country. BMI has downgraded the mobile outlook for Guatemala as it emerged that the government is planning to implement a new tax on mobile operators as of 2015.
Key Trends And Developments
Discussions over the introduction of number portability (NP) in El Salvador are ongoing. El Salvador's Superintendencia...
BMI View: The ongoing economic uptick in the US will translate into rising departures to the Caribbean in 2015, with St Lucia, St Eustatius, the Cayman Islands and Cuba set to perform particularly well. We see particular opportunities in Cuba, with the US-Cuba diplomatic rapprochement boosting prospects for a relaxation of the bilateral tourist regime.
We forecast mixed fortunes for the Caribbean in 2015, with most islands seeing growth in tourist arrivals but a few registering declines. The latter include Barbados (0.6%), Bonaire (6.1%), the Dominican Republic (1.5%) and St Vincent (1.6%). We believe that these declines reflect the drop of 1.2% in arrivals from Europe in 2015, with these economies usually registering strong arrivals from Europe. However, overall the Caribbean will see a net increase in tourist arrivals in 2015, as improving consumer confidence in the US leads more US tourists to visit the region,...