Our comprehensive assessment of Barbados's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Barbados, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Barbados' industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Barbados before your competitors.
Barbados Country Risk
We believe that the English-speaking Caribbean will continue to see a modest economic recovery in the coming quarters as US growth continues. A strengthening US consumer will boost tourism to the region, driving growth in tourism-dependent economies. Financial services will continue to struggle due to tightening financial regulation in developed economies, while lower precious metals prices will weaken the macroeconomic outlook for the region's miners. That said, growth will remain stronger in the region's mining-driven economies than in its predominantly tourism-driven countries.
Caribbean economies will continue to face economic headwinds in the coming years in light of rising debt burdens, fixed exchange rate regimes, and modest growth prospects. These factors, combined with our view that financial services sectors will see a significant...
Barbados Industry Coverage (5)
Food & Drink
Barbados Food & Drink
BMI View: We are turning more positive regarding economic growth in the Caribbean, as structural and financial reforms take hold in the region, tourism numbers pick up and growth becomes stronger in key markets like the US. The Dominican Republic will outperform other regional markets over the next five years. Nonetheless, small consumer bases will limit long-term investment opportunities, especially in the food retail sector.
|Dominican Republic The Regional Outperformer|
|Select Countries - Food Sales (% chg y-o-y, USD terms)|
BMI View: Currency weakness will continue to plague the dollar terms returns of many of the Caribbean insurance sectors covered in this report. Offshore business in Barbados and the Cayman Islands, amounting to around USD45bn annually, dwarf the domestic sectors in the region. Health insurance, an underdeveloped line of business, is likely to outperform in many of these markets over the five-year forecast period.
The insurance markets of the Caribbean, particularly offshore business in Barbados and the Cayman Islands, but also domestic sectors, are heavily tied to the economic fortunes of the United States and, to a lesser extent, Canada. The ongoing recovery in both major North American markets should boost the fortunes of the region's insurers, driving demand for offshore reinsurance and captives, as well as boosting domestic economies. On the whole, regulation...
BMI View: Our revised outlook for the Barbados insurance sector for 2016 and over the course of our forecast period, out to 2020, remains mixed. The non-life sector, which constitutes for around two-thirds of insurance business in the country, has matured and is beginning to show signs of tapering off, driven largely by the declines in the crucial property insurance life. Conversely, we hold a positive opinion of the life insurance segment of Barbados. Life premiums are expected to jump from an estimated USD99mn in 2016 to over USD188mn by the...
BMI View: Increasing competition in the Caribbean telecoms markets has potential to enhance innovation and improve customer choice. The announcement in May 2016 that Jamaica had launched a third mobile operator, increases the prospects of competition in that market. Jamaica's mobile market is currently a duopoly between Digicel and LIME. Although the arrival of a third mobile operator would help to shake up the Trinidad & Tobago mobile market, we still expect the process to take years to play out, as licence fees are agreed,...
BMI View: Arrivals growth in the Caribbean will increase 4.5% in 2016, reflecting improved visitor numbers from Europe and North America. Puerto Rico, Cuba, Bonaire and Guyana are expecting the highest rate of arrivals growth, but all tourism markets except Belize will experience growth. However, the outbreak of the Zika virus from late 2015 could pose downside risks to 2016 arrivals forecasts.
We currently expect arrivals to the Caribbean to grow by 4.5% in 2016, to 42.3mn, reflecting a slight moderation from growth of 5.2% in 2015. We expect Puerto Rico, Cuba, Bonaire and Guyana to post the highest level of arrivals growth in 2016, at around 5....