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EUR: Short-Term Neutral, But Bear Market Not Over Yet

After being bearish on the euro throughout H216, we are neutral from a short-term perspective as excessive bearish sentiment and a narrowing of German yield spreads versus the US should prevent further weakness. However, a combination of rising inflation expectations and widening peripheral yield spreads amid heightened political uncertainty that will continue to prevent the ECB from tightening any time soon, suggests that the euro bear market is not over yet.

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Stuart Allsopp

Head of Country Risk and Financial Markets Strategy
Financial Markets | Singapore

Tim Cooper, CFA

Global Economic Strategist
Banking & Finance | London

Lisa Lewin, CFA

Global Economist
Banking & Finance | London

Nick Johnston

Head of Econometrics & Data
Financial Markets | London
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