Content type

Bahraini Growth Will Pick Up After Weak Q123 Performance

Country Risk / Bahrain / Tue 18 Jul, 2023

Key View

  • In Q123, Bahrain real GDP growth came in at a disappointing 2.0% y-o-y, prompting us to revise down our 2023 growth forecast from 2.8% to 2.4%.
  • We expect that growth will trend higher in coming quarters supported by recovering oil production and robust non-oil activity.
  • Growth will then accelerate to 2.7% in 2024. Risks to the
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One More Hike In Bahrain In July, No Rate Cuts Before Q1 2024

Country Risk / Bahrain / Fri 23 Jun, 2023

Key View

  • We anticipate that the CBB will hike its policy rate by a final 25bps in July then keep the rate on hold until the end of 2023, though risks are to the upside.
  • In 2024, we expect that the CBB will continue to mirror the US Federal Reserve, cutting the policy rate by 175bps from 6.25% at the end of 2023 to 4.5% by the end of 2024.
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Bahrain's Q422 Data Point To Slower Growth In 2023

Country Risk / Bahrain / Tue 28 Mar, 2023

Key View

  • At Fitch Solutions, we maintain our forecast that Bahrain’s real GDP growth will decelerate from a decade high of 4.9% in 2022 to 2.8% in 2023, mainly due to weaker goods and services exports growth.
  • Real GDP grew by 4.1% y-o-y in Q422, remaining around the Q322 growth level and below the 6.9% y-o-y recorded in Q222, reinforcing
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