Bahamas

In-depth country-focused analysis on the Bahamas' economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Bahamas

Our comprehensive assessment of the Bahamas' operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect the Bahamas, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact the Bahamas' industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in the Bahamas before your competitors.

Bahamas Industry Coverage (5)

Food & Drink

Bahamas Food & Drink

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BMI View: We are turning more positive regarding economic growth in the Caribbean, as structural and financial reforms take hold in the region, tourism numbers pick up and growth becomes stronger in key markets like the US. The Dominican Republic and Jamaica will outperform other regional markets over the next five years. Nonetheless, small consumer bases will limit long-term investment opportunities.

Dominican Republic The Regional Outperformer
Select Countries - Food Sales Growth (% chg y-o-y, USD terms)
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Insurance

Bahamas Insurance

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BMI View: Currency weakness will continue to plague the dollar terms returns of many of the Caribbean insurance sectors covered in this report. Offshore business in Barbados and the Cayman Islands, amounting to around USD45bn annually, dwarf the domestic sectors in the region. Health insurance, an underdeveloped line of business, is likely to outperform in many of these markets over the five-year forecast period.

The insurance markets of the Caribbean, particularly offshore business in Barbados and the Cayman Islands, but also domestic sectors, are heavily tied to the economic fortunes of the United States and, to a lesser extent, Canada. The ongoing recovery in both major North American markets should boost the fortunes of the region's insurers, driving demand for offshore reinsurance and captives, as well as boosting domestic economies. On the whole, regulation...

Bahamas Insurance

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BMI View: We hold a generally favourable outlook for the Bahamas insurance sector in our Q2 2016 report update. We believe that the non-life sector is poised to grow at a faster rate than its more mature life sector counterpart. With overall insurance density higher than USD2,000 per capita in 2016, the Bahamian insurance sector as a whole is well developed. The primary drivers of growth will be very strong annual uptake of motor vehicle insurance from 2016 onwards, growing at an annual yearly rate of over 7% till the end of our forecast period in 2020. The property insurance line, which constitutes of two-thirds of all non-life premiums, will begin to slow down its growth rate due to market maturity. We believe that ...

Telecommunications

Bahamas Telecommunications

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BMI View: Haiti and Cuba represent the largest organic growth opportunities in the region, as both are significantly underdeveloped compared to their peers. However, the risks associated with business in these two markets mean that a mobile subscription boom is far from likely.

Key Data

  • Cayman Islands has the highest mobile penetration, at 153.4% in 2015, while Cuba's penetration rate remains below the regional average, at 28.9%.

  • The number of mobile lines in Cuba reached the 3mn mark in Q215, up from 2.4mn lines at the start of 2015, according to data published by state-owned telecoms operator Empresa de Telecomunicaciones de Cuba (ETECSA). The increase was mainly owing to a promotion, called Si activas ganas 30, wherein new users obtained USD30 in credit for activating a...

Tourism

Bahamas Tourism

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BMI View: Arrivals growth in the Caribbean will pick up to 2.3% in 2016, reflecting improved visitor numbers from Europe and North America. The Dominican Republic, St Eustatius and Cuba are expecting the highest rate of arrivals growth, but all tourism markets will experience growth in 2016. However, the outbreak of the Zika virus from late 2015 could pose downside risks to 2016 arrivals forecasts.

We currently expect arrivals to the Caribbean to grow by 2.3% in 2016, to 33.5mn, reflecting an improvement from growth of only 0.6% in 2015. We expect the Dominican Republic, Cuba, St Eustatius and St Lucia to post the highest level of arrivals growth in 2016, at around 6%, but we note the positive sign that all Caribbean countries except St Vincent will experience arrivals growth in 2016, for the first time since the downturn....

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