Articles

Subdued Short-Term Consumer Momentum

South Africa's consumer outlook will regain momentum, albeit only gradually in 2017. We hold a tepid outlook for the growth of the country's economic environment, weighing substantially on consumer confidence. High and rising unemployment,...

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Strong Growth Ahead For e-Commerce Despite Logistical Hurdles

Within APAC, we identify Vietnam as having strong growth potential for e-commerce, on the back of rapidly rising broadband and mobile penetration, greater foreign investment in ICT, and strong state backing and robust economic outlook. Logistics...

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Sharara, El Feel: A False Start

Despite the restart of the Sharara and El Feel oilfields, we hold to our current production forecast of 458,000b/d for 2017. Given the localised and fluid nature of the conflict and weak state infrastructure, we believe the risks of renewed...

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More Peso Weakness For Now As Economic Activity Slows

Slowing economic activity growth in October highlights ongoing weakness in durable goods orders from the US. Strong retails sales reflect rising US dollar remittance inflows, bolstered further by the weaker Mexican peso.

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Global Autos: Growth Stable But Focus To Shift

The global autos market will remain stable in 2017 with growth of 2.9%. However, it will be emerging markets driving this growth rather than the developed states that have taken the lead for the last two years.

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Charts Of 2016: What They Tell Us About 2017

As the year draws to a close, we have pulled together our favourite charts of 2016. All are charts that we ran at some point during the year - in some cases over and over - and all are striking both in terms of what they tell us about the world in...

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Assassination To Worsen Security Environment

The December 19 assassination of Russia's ambassador to Turkey will not lead to a noticeable deterioration of relations between the two countries. However, the attack will lead to a worsening security environment in Turkey, compounding the country's...

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SSA Autos: Slow Return To Growth

Vehicle sales growth in Sub-Saharan Africa will be just above the global average in 2017, but this belies the ongoing weakness in the region which is keeping growth levels far below potential. South Africa and Nigeria, as the region's biggest...

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