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• In Q423, Japan fell into technical recession for the first time in five years, according to preliminary estimates. Real GDP shrunk by 0.1% q-o-q in Q423, and by 0.8% in Q3.
• Japan’s technical recession aligns with our view of increasing challenges for the Japanese economy. We forecast that real GDP growth will ease to 0.9% in 2024

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• We believe that below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures in Zimbabwe pose a downside risk to the domestic corn harvest in 2023/24. 
• The negative impact of unfavourable weather conditions on agricultural production will be amplified by Zimbabwe’s macroeconomic difficulties, adding further pressure to domestic food

The Latest: On January 31 2024, the South African-based Chinese general merchandise retailer Panda Mart opened its first store in the Garden City Mall in Nairobi, Kenya. Panda Mart announced that it plans to open a further five stores in Kenya over H124, with a second store planned in Karen, Nairobi, as well as outlets in Kisumu, Eldoret and

Concerns surrounding the health of the US commercial real estate (CRE) market and potential economic implications intensified following the poor earnings reported by New York Community Bank on January 31. The situation has since appeared to stabilise, though still elevated interest rates and looming maturity walls will likely see CRE risks

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• Airtel Africa (Airtel) has launched Telesonic, a subsidiary focused on wholesale data provision in Africa, leveraging its extensive 75,000km terrestrial fibre network to enhance connectivity and continent-wide digital transformation ambitions.
• The demand for higher-speed forms of internet access may be evident in Africa, with

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• Hostilities in the Red Sea have caused major shipping companies to take the longer route between Europe and Asia around the Cape of Good Hope.
• If disruptions persist, we would be forced to materially revise down growth forecasts for India and Bangladesh, two of the fastest growing Asian economies.
• An upside shock to oil prices

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• Our core view for Argentina is that President Javier Milei will be able to successfully tighten fiscal policy, which will lead the fiscal deficit to narrow from an estimated 6.2% to 2.9% of GDP in 2024. Real GDP will contract by 1.9% in 2024, before recovering strongly in 2025 and 2026.
• In our upside scenario, Milei will cut the

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• The Malaysian economy underperformed our 3.9% growth forecast for 2023, expanding by a modest 3.7%, indicating a softer growth momentum than initially expected. 
• While we anticipate that the recovery in the coming quarters will be uneven amid tepid global demand, resilient investment activity and a tight labour market should boost

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• We forecast a slight deceleration in Uzbekistan’s growth from 6.0% in 2023 to 5.6% in 2024. 
• The main drivers of growth in 2024 will be increased industrial production and capital investment, supported by international financial institutions.
• Despite a strong performance in foreign trade, net exports will not contribute to

Similar to clothing and footwear in Developing Asia, the social commerce trend has also driven development in the personal care segment in Developing Asia. While traditional e-commerce provided consumers with an avenue to access and purchase a wide spectrum of beauty products, social commerce platforms have been more successful in fostering a