Articles

Election Scenarios And Market Implications

The trajectory of US stocks, bonds and global risk assets over the remainder of 2016 will be largely determined by the election outcome. A Clinton victory would likely result in the relief rally seen on November 7 turning into a run at a new all-...

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BMI Vs Consensus: Positive On Ghanaian Growth

We retain our positive outlook on Ghanaian growth, and our expectations of Nigerian naira depreciation are milder than those of other analysts. We also expect Angola inflation to be higher than consensus forecasts.

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Fiscal Pressures Waning; Modest Reforms Ahead

Qatar's fiscal situation will improve from 2017 as gains in hydrocarbon prices boost revenues and the government continues to diversify its sources of income. The government will maintain its efforts to increase its revenue base and to rationalise...

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Autonomous Vehicles Could Erode Transport Construction Demand

The adoption of driverless freight and passenger vehicles will disrupt and enhance existing transport networks and make obsolete traditional ways of thinking about public transit. We use two scenarios, based on if adoption will be done on a...

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What To Watch For On Election Night

The much-anticipated US elections for president and Congress will be held on Tuesday, November 8. Our core view on the outcome of the election is no different now than it was in August: Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton will win the presidency,...

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Week Ahead: Defying Odds, Economy In Upswing In Q416

In the week ahead we will be watching the release of industrial production data for September from across the eurozone. While growth in aggregate eurozone industrial production decelerated steadily from end-2015 through July, when it contracted by 0...

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Macro Headwinds Pose Short-Term Risks For Growth Markets

Most of the 13 Asia Pacific countries surveyed in our IT Risk/Reward Index witnessed adjustments to their Industry Rewards scores this quarter. Despite this, there were no movers on our ranking table and this illustrates some degree of stability in...

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Softer Demand, Stronger Supply

The persistent market dynamic of softer demand and stronger supply will become a more dominant driver of prices as the impact of OPEC's verbal interventions begins to fade and expectations for coordinated cuts are readjusted.

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Global Commodities Strategy

Our core view remains for the Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton to win the November 8 US election, but uncertainty has grown over recent days as Clinton has seen her lead in the national polls shrink. A surprise Trump victory or a...

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High Court Ruling Risks Delaying Brexit Timeline

The UK High Court's ruling that Parliament must get to decide on whether to trigger Article 50, which sets the clock for the UK leaving the EU, is set to push back the timeline for Brexit and risks a major political rift. If the government's appeal...

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