On Top After OPEC Deal

Russia will benefit substantially from its commitment to the non-OPEC cut through the deals it has subsequently secured with OPEC members. While Russia will reduce production by nearly 300,000b/d by May, average production over H117 and exports will...

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Questions To Consider In 2017

While our core view is that the telecoms and tech markets will experience business as usual in 2017, a number of events could drastically change the outlook. While not our core views, we believe it is important to set them out, and point out the...

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What Could Cause A Commodity Price Spike?

A commodity price spike is one of our 'hidden risks' for 2017, along with several other low-probability but high-impact events. Current market consensus, as well as our own view, is for only modest commodity price gains in 2017. Nonetheless, a broad...

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PSD Victory Will Yield Little Change In Policy

Romania's Social Democratic Party (PSD) is on course to lead the country's next government having trounced the opposition centre-right National Liberal Party in the December 11 general election, according to preliminary results. A PSD-led government...

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Fox Looks For Control And Scale With Sky Deal

Fox's second attempt to buy Sky is way to get more control and scale in an ever-changing content landscape. The global ambitions of both Netflix and Amazon make it imperative that the market will consolidate, even as content rights continue to...

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Early Elections Likely Following Impeachment Vote

South Korea is likely to hold early presidential elections in 2017, bringing them forward from December 2017, following President Park Geun-hye's impeachment by parliament on December 9. While Park intends to fight the impeachment, we believe she...

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Downgrading Trade Growth As Mainland Woes Persist

Trade data from Hong Kong have improved since the first quarter of 2016, which also coincided with recovering data out of mainland China. However, the structural weaknesses plaguing the Chinese economy remain in place and will continue to weigh on...

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Key Themes For 2017: Populism, Nationalism And Reflation

2017 is set to be another tumultuous year for the global economy, with the rise of populism and nationalism potentially triggering fundamental changes in the dynamics of trade, labour markets and ultimately, economic growth. Systemic risks abound...

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Improved Mining Laws To Bolster Growth

Though under-developed at present, we expect the mining sector to become an increasingly crucial industry as the government steps up efforts to accelerate the diversification of the economy in the wake of falling oil revenues. While the majority of...

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Continued Reforms, But Commodity Prices To Determine Impact

China will remain a major risk factor for commodity prices in the coming quarters as the country continues to balance economic stability and reform of its oversupplied industries. With President Xi's elevated political status and concentration of...

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