Articles

What To Watch For On Election Night

The much-anticipated US elections for president and Congress will be held on Tuesday, November 8. Our core view on the outcome of the election is no different now than it was in August: Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton will win the presidency,...

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Week Ahead: Defying Odds, Economy In Upswing In Q416

In the week ahead we will be watching the release of industrial production data for September from across the eurozone. While growth in aggregate eurozone industrial production decelerated steadily from end-2015 through July, when it contracted by 0...

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Macro Headwinds Pose Short-Term Risks For Growth Markets

Most of the 13 Asia Pacific countries surveyed in our IT Risk/Reward Index witnessed adjustments to their Industry Rewards scores this quarter. Despite this, there were no movers on our ranking table and this illustrates some degree of stability in...

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Softer Demand, Stronger Supply

The persistent market dynamic of softer demand and stronger supply will become a more dominant driver of prices as the impact of OPEC's verbal interventions begins to fade and expectations for coordinated cuts are readjusted.

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Global Commodities Strategy

Our core view remains for the Democrat presidential candidate Hillary Clinton to win the November 8 US election, but uncertainty has grown over recent days as Clinton has seen her lead in the national polls shrink. A surprise Trump victory or a...

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High Court Ruling Risks Delaying Brexit Timeline

The UK High Court's ruling that Parliament must get to decide on whether to trigger Article 50, which sets the clock for the UK leaving the EU, is set to push back the timeline for Brexit and risks a major political rift. If the government's appeal...

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Fiscal Deficit To Overshoot Beijing's Target

We maintain our forecast for China's fiscal deficit to come in at 3.4% and 3.5% of GDP for 2016 and 2017 respectively, despite a pick-up in revenue growth in September. A cooling down in the property market will weigh on future revenue collection,...

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Zuma's Ouster: A Matter Of When, Not If

Infighting within South Africa's ruling African National Congress will pose significant risks to the country's economic outlook. In this scenario analysis, we examine a number of outcomes through which the current power struggle could play out,...

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A Hidden Bubble In UK Auto Retail?

We believe a precarious mix of rising inventories at dealerships and weakening second hand car prices are placing the UK's autos retail industry in a difficult position. This poses a risk to auto retailer earnings over the 2017 and 2018 period.

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