Articles

Key View:

• After a substantial cycle of monetary easing in recent years, increased upside risks to inflation will prevent the Bank of Uganda (BoU) from implementing further cuts to its policy rate over the short term.
• Robust economic growth prospects will further limit the impetus for monetary easing, as improved private consumption and ongoing

While Moroccan growth will moderately slow in 2018 and 2019, we expect it to remain above the regional average thanks to tourism and manufacturing gains.

• Morocco's real GDP growth will slow in 2018 and 2019 compared with the highs seen in 2017 but will remain above the regional average.
• Tourism and manufacturing will be the key growth drivers

• While low coffee prices will subdue overall export receipts, increased production of electricity, leather products and other agricultural goods will see export growth remain positive.
• Owing to the devaluation of the birr in October 2017, import demand is likely to be somewhat subdued given the increased price of consumer and capital goods in

This month, we look at how the continued rise in populism in emerging markets (EMs) is leading to some backtracking of reforms, following the recent, albeit widely anticipated, electoral success of populist candidates in Mexico and Turkey. Upcoming general elections in Brazil, Argentina, India and Indonesia - among others - could see policies

Key View: Robust US gas supply gains, combined with a faster rate of storage injections, will cap Henry Hub prices over H218. Increasingly efficient upstream operations will support continued output growth at low prices beyond 2020, offsetting demand growth from expanding US export capacity.

We are revising down our forecast for South Korea's real GDP growth in 2018 from 3.0% to 2.7%. This is due to weaker export growth as a result of base effects and escalating global trade tensions, as well as the weak employment outlook in the country, which will weigh on private consumption.

We are revising down our forecast for South Korea's real

Key View:

• The continued integration of the Pacific Alliance over the coming years as outlined in the group's Vision 2030 approved on July 25 will benefit the infrastructure sectors of Colombia, Mexico, Chile and Peru.
• Cooperation to facilitate flows of investment between countries in the group will ease obstacles to cross-border infrastructure

Key View: Sandoz's overall Q218 sales have been hampered by US sales, which continue to be troublesome for Sandoz; with several consecutive quarters of declines, US sales are now at their lowest point since before Q114. Biopharmaceuticals sales are proving to be an increasingly bright spot for Sandoz. Whilst they remain a small part of total

• After rebounding in the last quarter of 2017, Rwanda's economic growth is set to continue to accelerate over the next two years, mainly due to an expansion in services and agriculture.
• Moreover, increased government-led investment in key infrastructure projects focused on addressing the country's energy and transportation shortcomings will

Thailand's consumer spending will see an uptick in 2018, driven by an upward revision in GDP forecast. Existing favourable conditions of low unemployment, rising incomes and high frequency indicators pointing to the strength of the consumer will support our bright consumer outlook for Thailand.

• Within our consumer spending sub-segments, we note