BMI View: We forecast Turkmen consumer price inflation to average 7.0% in 2012 and 6.3% in 2013, down from an estimated 7.0% in 2011. Economic growth will ease this year, to 8.0% by our forecasts from an estimated 11.4% in 2011 as external demand wanes easing demand-pull inflationary pressures. However, the food price inflation picture is becoming increasingly grim, and will likely push up food price inflation. Domestic grain production has undershot targets owing to a poor planting season and exceptionally dry weather. Meanwhile, global food prices have trended higher as various supply-side constraints have coalesced. We expect these dynamics to keep inflation well supported this year.