Strong Economic Outlook Boosts Consumer Sectors
BMI 's Europe team believes that Kazakhstan will continue to enjoy robust economic growth through 2012 and 2013, underpinned by the ongoing development of the nation's vast natural resource base. Forecast real GDP growth of 5.8% in 2012 and 6.3% in 2013 bodes well for consumer spending, with Kazakhstan considered among our favourite countries in the Commonwealth of Independent States region. We see a lot of room for growth across many sectors , particularly alcohol and food retailing.
Multinationals led by Nestlé , Turkey-based Ülker and possibly a range of companies in neighbouring Russia , are likely to scale up investment, particularly with much of emerging Europe no longer as attractive on the consumer side following the global financial crisis. Domestic capital market development is also likely to allow more local companies to emerge.
We also view the beer industry positively, with Anadolu Efes' emerging Europe-focused international brewing unit Efes Breweries International (EBI) competing with Russia's Baltika (owned by Carlsberg ). Strengthening disposable incomes are likely to continue supporting beer industry volume growth at the expense of lower value spirits in particular over the medium-to-long term, which will very likely push up per capita beer consumption well above the 30 litres at which w e estimate it currently stands. Mass grocery retail looks promising, too, with demand for organised retail expected to pick up strongly over the next few years, which is likely to lead to greater investment interest from Russia-based retailers in particular.
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