China Recovery To Boost Exports, But Momentum To Wane In H213
BMI View: In line with our long-held view that prevailing global headwinds would depress external demand in 2012, trade and manufacturing data released by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) continued to reflect a lacklustre recovery in exports in Q412. As for 2013, we see the case for a more forceful recovery in external demand led by an improved macroeconomic outlook on the Chinese economy in H113.
Trade and manufacturing data released by the Bank of Thailand (BoT) earlier this week continued to reflect a lacklustre recovery across Thailand's main export segments in Q412 (including automobiles, processed agricultural products and electronics). Furthermore, looking at the nominal value of exports across all the three categories of manufactured goods mentioned above, we have yet to see exports surpassing pre-flood levels seen in mid-2011. This is in closely in line with our long-held view that prevailing global headwinds would depress external demand in 2012.
Signs Of A More Forceful Recovery Ahead…
|Largely Base Effects|
|Thailand - Manufacturing Exports And Selected Components, % chg y-o-y (LHS) & % chg m-o-m 3mma (RHS)|