Angola

In-depth country-focused analysis on Angola’s economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Angola

Our comprehensive assessment of Angola’s operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Angola, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Angolan industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Angola before your competitors.

Country Risk

Angola Country Risk

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Core Views

  • Angola will face another challenging year in 2016 as low oil prices, a weak investment climate, and rising inflation all contribute to low real GDP growth. The outlook improves slightly for 2017 as accelerating oil production supports exports, but the structural weaknesses in the economy will remain largely unaddressed.

  • A depreciating currency, the removal of subsidies, and an increasing money supply will see inflation continue to rise through H116 in Angola, prompting the monetary policy committee of the Banco Nacional de Angola to make furthers hikes in the policy rate.

  • Angola's budget will record another heavy deficit in 2016 as even lower oil prices offset the impact on government revenues of several devaluations made to the local currency. Furthermore, the government's clear intention to increase expenditures...

Angola Operational Risk Coverage (9)

Angola Operational Risk

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Angola's operating environment is threatened by high levels of crime, endemic corruption, a lack of adequate regulations and poor military capacity to ensure security and combat crime. Underdeveloped financial legislation exposes businesses to fraud and money laundering activities, while violent assaulted and armed robberies threaten employees in their day-to-day activities. However, with the exception of lingering border disputes with the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Congo Republic, Angola enjoys good relations with its neighbours and is increasingly involved in regional cooperation on trade and security. As a result, Angola receives an overall score of 29.3 out of 100 for Crime and Security Risks, sitting in 28 th position out of 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Only Competitive In Terms Of Conflict Risk
Angola & Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Average - Crime And Security Risk Scores...

Angola Crime & Security

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BMI View:  Angola's poor overall security environment poses a number of risks to investors, including violent crime from informal and organised gangs; a prevalence of legal and illegal firearms; an unresolved border dispute with the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC); and low levels of professionalism and competence in the national police. These conditions pose a number of security threats to foreign companies. Expatriates and their property are the preferred target of attacks by formal and informal criminals, and foreigners enjoy little protection from the police, whose low accountability and reliability necessitate investment in private security systems. Difficulties could also arise from potential border closures...

Angola Labour Market

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BMI View: Angola's labour force is weak as a result of years of civil war that damaged the country's infrastructure. Poverty and limited access to healthcare perpetuates low life expectancy rates, while inadequate and overcrowded teaching facilities and resources limit the educational attainment and skills of the Angolan workforce. Despite a severe shortage in qualified local labourers, firms face high costs and difficult bureaucratic procedures to import high-skilled expatriates, which affect business productivity. Nonetheless, increased government spending on education and healthcare is likely to strengthen the labour force in the long term. Angola therefore receives a score of 37.9 out of 100 for its Labour Market Risk, ranking 25th out of 48 Sub-Saharan African (SSA...

Angola Logistics

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Angola has only recently emerged from a civil war that raged from 1975 to 2002. The war decimated the economy and left Angola's infrastructure in tatters. In the post-war era, the Angolan government faces the onerous task of rebuilding what was lost. In doing so, it could boost the country's already booming oil sector, while also diversifying its economy into other important industries.

Its agricultural potential, in particular, is very important. At the time of its independence in 1975, Angola was largely self-sufficient in agriculture production, was the largest staple food exporter in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and the third largest coffee exporter in the world. By 2000, its agriculture and mining sectors were in shatters, with landmines rendering much of the country unsafe, transport systems broken, and just 3% of its land arable. Angola now ranks seventh in the Global Food Security Index due to the fact that the country imports around 90...

Angola Trade & Investment

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BMI View: Angola's wealth of natural resources has potential to attract greater foreign investment; however the high levels of bureaucracy and legal risk have reduced the scope of opportunities available for foreign investment. Although investors can benefit from the fiscal and tax incentives in various sectors and special economic zones, businesses in Angola continue to be burdened with difficult and expensive bureaucratic processes and significant trade barriers in the form of costly and lengthy import and export procedures. Furthermore, firms will face difficulty in accessing credit and international financial markets due to the country's banking structure and poor financial compliance in key sectors...

Angola Industry Coverage (11)

Agribusiness

Angola Agribusiness

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BMI View: We believe the rising incomes and population of South West Africa will see the region enjoy long-term growth in production in the corn sector. While there will be bumps along the way, we are ultimately predicting the region to see output growth outpace consumption growth over our forecast period to 2019. Meanwhile, in the sugar sector we see production in the key markets of Angola and Zambia beginning to slow over the forecast period as cheap imports from Brazil and China compete with local production.

Key BMI Forecasts

  • Angolan corn production from 2014/15 to 2018/19: 6% to 1.97mn tonnes. Although less than the bumper 2014 crop, we expect above-...

Angola Agribusiness

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BMI View: We believe rising incomes and growing populations in Angola, Botswana and Namibia will see these countries enjoy long-term production growth in the corn sector. While there will be bumps along the way, we are ultimately predicting these countries to see output growth outpace consumption growth over our forecast period to 2020. Meanwhile, in the sugar sector we see Angolan production accelerating over the forecast...

Autos

Angola Autos

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BMI View: We expect vehicle sales in 2016 to fall by 19.0% as inflationary pressures driven by a weakening currency and high domestic fuel prices weigh on the purchasing power of the Angolan consumer and keep vehicle import prices elevated, leading to a challenging year for the autos industry.

Inflationary Pressures Weighing Down Vehicle Sales
Angola - Vehicle Sales
f = BMI forecast. Source: BMI, Renault

Key Views...

Food & Drink

Angola Food & Drink

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BMI View: Angola's food and drink industry will contract over 2016 due to a weak economy, weak investment climate and rising inflation. Consumers will remain price sensitive over 2016, which will drive growth in economically priced segments. Over the long term, Angola's food and drink industry will remain attractive, showing robust growth on the back of economic expansion and favourable demographics.

Food and Drink Spending
(2013-2020)
f = BMI forecast....

Infrastructure

Angola Infrastructure

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BMI View : The Angolan government will struggle to devote significant financial attention to its key infrastructure projects over 2016 given the wide fiscal deficit and decreased revenues owing to low oil prices. We expect a substantial uptick in growth for the construction sector from 2020 onwards as the country's fiscal position improves, though note the government will need to address pervasive corruption and ease labour market restrictions to attract necessary private investment.

Latest Updates And Structural Trends

  • ...

Insurance

Angola Insurance

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BMI View: Angola's life insurance industry is small even by sub-Saharan African standards, though some lines, including motor and health and personal accident insurance, are better developed than others. Low income levels and widespread poverty have constrained the growth of the life insurance market, where underwriting volumes remain negligible. A lack of private enterprise has also restrained the wider development of the market, with state-owned provider ENSA dominant in both the life and non-life segment while the government continues to place limits on foreign participation. Nevertheless, despite falling oil prices we retain a positive outlook for the insurance sector as a whole, with premiums set to expand at a steady pace in the better developed markets. While we don't expect the competitive landscape to change greatly in the medium term, multinationals...

Mining

Angola Mining

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BMI View: The mining industry is becoming increasingly critical to Angola's economy and plays a key part in the government's national development plan as it looks to diversify and lessen its dependence on revenues from oil and gas exports. Gradual restriction of mining industry regulations has encouraged increased international investment in recent years, and the government is activity courting partnerships with China and other governments as it looks to create much-needed infrastructure. At present the diamond mining segment is the most developed sub-sector by a considerable distance, though there are opportunities for exploiting the country's sizeable iron ore and coal deposits.

Angola Mining Industry Value (2013-2020)
...

Oil & Gas

Angola Oil & Gas

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BMI View : Angola's oil production is forecast to remain strong and unaffected by low oil prices, with output rising up until 2018. Post-2018 oil production will fall off due to a steep decline in rates on mature fields and no new projects forecast to counteract the declines. However, with plenty of pre-FID projects in the pipeline and a strong oil major presence, oil production risks lie to the upside. Gas production will remain limited throughout our forecast with weak domestic demand, but will benefit from the ALNG coming back online after two years of closure....

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

Angola Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

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BMI View: Like other oil-dependent countries, Angola has suffered from the large fall in the price of oil. The healthcare sector has been impacted by large budget cuts as a result of the lower government revenues. With waste collection services also affected by severe cuts, the country is expected to see a sharp rise in communicable diseases such as the re-emergence of yellow fever disease following a major outbreak which began in December 2015. We believe that the deterioration of Angola's healthcare sector will work to impede the pharmaceutical market in the near-term at least until oil prices recover.

Headline Expenditure Forecasts

  • Pharmaceuticals: AOA34.25bn (USD282mn...

Power

Angola Power

BMI View:

BMI View: Angola will not increase its electricity generation through means other than hydropower, due to a lack of oil or gas-fired projects which are economically viable. Furthermore, our bearish forecasts reflect our view that subsequent power projects beyond 2016 will also struggle to progress due to a decrease in government spending following the collapse in oil prices.

Headline Power Forecasts (Angola 2014 - 2020)
2014e 2015f 2016f 2017f ...

Telecommunications

Angola Telecommunications

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BMI View : BMI 's Southern Africa report analyses the latest industry, regulatory and macroeconomic developments in the telecoms markets in Angola, Botswana, Mozambique, Mauritius and Namibia. It also contains our estimates based on the latest market data and updated five-year forecasts to 2020 for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband sectors. From the five states, Mauritius and Mozambique stand out as dynamic and higher performing markets in terms of penetration and 3G/4G developments along with growth rates.

Latest Updates & Industry Developments

  • Important downward revisions were made to Angola's...

Latest Angola Articles

  • We have upgraded our oil price forecast this month with markets having pric...

  • Angolan power generation will increase to more than double the current leve...

  • CBOT wheat prices will remain on the upside over the remainder of 2016, sup...

Latest Angola Blogs

  • BMI Research has just published a special report, Top 10 Political Successi...

  • Business Monitor International (BMI) has just published a new special repor...

Latest Angola Podcasts

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