Albania

In-depth country-focused analysis on Albania's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Albania

Our comprehensive assessment of Albania's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Albania, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Albania's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Albania before your competitors.

Country Risk

Albania Country Risk

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Core Views

  • Albania will remain attached to a relatively low growth trajectory over the coming years, amid subdued exports and government fiscal consolidation efforts.

  • More efforts need to be made to implement structural reforms aimed at tackling corruption and improving labour market flexibility, if Albania is to have any hope of converging with historically more developed regional peers.

  • Albania's large and entrenched trade balance shortfall will ensure that the country's current account remains firmly in deficit over the coming years.

  • Uncertainty in neighbouring Greece after the country's debt crisis will increase the scope for regional instability. It will also weigh on demand for Albanian exports to Greece and remittances inflows from Albanian workers based in Greece.

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Albania Industry Coverage (2)

Oil & Gas

Albania Oil & Gas

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BMI View: Weak oil prices are impacting Albania's upstream. Bankers has seen oil production fall, while TransAtlantic is looking to exit Albania and has put its assets up for sale. Prospects remain good for further redevelopments at existing oilfields, while both onshore and offshore exploration offer upside potential to our oil and gas forecasts.

Headline Forecasts (Albania 2013-2019)
2013 2014 2015f...

Telecommunications

Albania Telecommunications

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BMI View: Owing to the laggardly pace of regulatory reform, Albania is one of Europe's most challenging telecommunications markets from an investment perspective. Although there are numerous alternative operators challenging the incumbent in the mobile and wireline sectors, price-led competition hampers their ability to develop advanced monetisable services. The mobile market suffers, in particular, from a surfeit of inactive subscriptions. Efforts to eliminate these are causing highly variable growth trends, making it difficult to accurately gauge the market's size and trajectory. In the wireline arena, customers are migrating to cheap mobile services and although the market is buoyed by demand for fixed broadband, the roll-out of 3G mobile broadband poses downside risks to growth. Although the incumbent has developed a high-speed network and aims to leverage IPTV to exploit its potential, the sector remains unattractive on...

Latest Albania Articles

  • We have revised down our CME milk price forecast for 2016 and now see price...

  • We believe that there is currently disconnect between oil prices and fundam...

  • Price-elastic consumption growth and more limited growth in supply will mai...

Latest Albania Blogs

  • Most of the discussions surrounding Greece's potential exit ('Grexit') from...

  • With negotiations coming to a head, our core scenario is for Greece to rema...

  • The political crisis in Macedonia merits considerable vigilance, for if the...

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