Albania

In-depth country-focused analysis on Albania's economic, political and operational risk environment, complemented by detailed sector insight

Albania

Our comprehensive assessment of Albania's operating environment and the outlook for its leading sectors are formed by bringing together a wealth of data on global markets that affect Albania, as well as the latest industry developments that could impact Albania's industries. This unique integrated approach has given us an impeccable track-record for predicting important shifts in the markets, ensuring you’re aware of the latest market opportunities and risks in Albania before your competitors.

Country Risk

Albania Country Risk

BMI View:

Core Views

  • Economic growth in Albania will accelerate over the next two years, but continue to remain well below pre-crises levels. Real GDP growth will be driven mainly by fixed investment, as the country's business climate improves and easing credit conditions begin to pass through to the real economy

  • Albania's current account will remain firmly in deficit over our forecast period to 2020, primarily as a result of a large trade deficit. While the shortfall will be covered by reserves and IMF assistance in 2016 and 2017, balance of payments funding strains may start to occur as these resources are exhausted.

  • Albania's annual rate of inflation will not reach the central bank's 3.0% target until 2017, and the policy rate will not increase until the following year. Gradually rising inflation will reflect a...

Albania Industry Coverage (2)

Oil & Gas

Albania Oil & Gas

BMI View:

BMI View: Weak oil prices have essentially stalled exploration and development work in Albania's upstream, and will negatively impact production in 2016. Two key companies are also looking to exit their position in the country as investment is pulled back.

Headline Forecasts (Albania 2014-2020)
2014 2015e 2016f 2017f ...

Telecommunications

Albania Telecommunications

BMI View:

BMI View: Owing to the laggardly pace of regulatory reform, Albania is one of Europe's most challenging telecommunications markets from an investment perspective. Although there are numerous alternative operators challenging the incumbent in the mobile and wireline sectors, price-led competition hampers their ability to develop advanced monetisable services. The mobile market suffers, in particular, from a surfeit of inactive subscriptions. Efforts to eliminate these are causing highly variable growth trends, making it difficult to accurately gauge the market's size and trajectory. In the wireline arena, customers are migrating to cheap mobile services and although the market is buoyed by demand for fixed broadband, the roll-out of 3G mobile broadband poses downside risks to growth. Although the incumbent has developed a high-speed network and aims to leverage IPTV to exploit its potential, the sector remains unattractive on...

Latest Albania Articles

  • With global growth continuing to stutter amid unconvincing growth performan...

  • We have upgraded our oil price forecast this month with markets having pric...

  • Britain's exit ('Brexit') from the EU would have significant geopolitical i...

Latest Albania Blogs

  • Most of the discussions surrounding Greece's potential exit ('Grexit') from...

  • With negotiations coming to a head, our core scenario is for Greece to rema...

  • The political crisis in Macedonia merits considerable vigilance, for if the...

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